Ken Paxton Secures GOP Nomination
Democratic candidate James Talarico’s prospects in the Texas U.S. Senate race have become more uncertain after Republican Ken Paxton won the GOP nomination. State Attorney General Paxton, with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Paxton won a significant 62 percent of the vote, as reported by the Associated Press.
Following this victory, prediction markets shifted to favor Paxton, though with months remaining until Election Day, the race is still open. Democrats aim to make breakthroughs in Texas, a state eluding them for statewide office victories since the mid-1990s. Changes in suburban areas around cities such as Austin, Dallas, and Houston, along with recent polling, suggest that the contest is competitive.
Betting Odds and Predictions
Polymarket reveals a decline in Talarico’s chances by 5 percentage points, dropping to around 40 percent. Meanwhile, Kalshi places Talarico’s odds at 43 percent, down slightly from earlier. BetOnline indicates that the betting odds shifted towards the GOP after Paxton’s primary win. Paxton holds a slight edge at -125, contrasting with Talarico at -105. This highlights a competitive race with Paxton as a narrow favorite.
Polling Insights
Polling suggests a competitive race with no decisive frontrunner. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll from January tied Paxton and Talarico at 45.6 percent. In March, Talarico secured the Democratic nomination, defeating Jasmine Crockett. By April, polls positioned Talarico ahead as Republicans remained divided. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed Talarico leading Paxton 46 percent to 41 percent between April 17 and 20. Additionally, a Texas Politics Project poll from the University of Texas found Talarico leading by 8 points.
Later polls indicated a close race. For instance, a Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll suggested a tie at 45 percent each between April 22 and May 6. Compared to Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 position, Talarico shows stronger polling and offers Democrats a more competitive starting point for 2026. However, the Cook Political Report still classifies the race as Lean Republican, acknowledging the GOP’s historical advantage.
Campaign Statements
Paxton celebrated his primary success by stating, “Today, change was on the ballot and change won.” Speaking to supporters, he stressed that the Senate seat belongs to Texans, not Washington, and identified himself with grassroots conservative issues such as border security.
Talarico faces attacks on past statements, notably his remark during a legislative debate that “God is nonbinary.” Republicans emphasize this alongside his LGBTQ+ advocacy, portraying him as overly liberal. Talarico describes the race as a choice between “corruption and extremism” versus moderate, policy-driven governance. He criticized Paxton as “the most corrupt politician in America” and noted the allegations leading to Paxton’s 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House, though Paxton was later acquitted by the Senate.
The election is set for November 3, 2026, and both candidates continue to campaign actively, preparing for a fierce contest.
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