Poll Highlights Closely Contested Race
Recent polls show Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and TV star Spencer Pratt in a close race. A UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times survey conducted May 19–24 reveals Bass at 26 percent, followed by Raman at 25 percent and Pratt at 22 percent. These numbers place the candidates within the margin of error, indicating no clear leader.
Change in Polling Dynamics
Earlier polls consistently showed Bass leading comfortably. However, the current data suggests that voter turnout will be crucial in determining who advances to the November runoff. While prediction markets still favor Bass, her lead has narrowed significantly. For example, Polymarket showed Bass at approximately 71 percent, while Kalshi had her at 69 percent, ahead of Pratt and Raman.
Perspectives from Campaign Advisers
Doug Herman, a Bass campaign adviser, expressed confidence, citing Bass’s record of reducing homelessness and increasing police numbers as positive factors. Meanwhile, campaigns for Pratt and Raman have focused on contrasting Bass’s record with their own policy positions.
“Everyone knew this would be a close race, and it shows Karen Bass in the lead heading into Tuesday,” said Herman.
What the Latest Poll Indicates
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies conducted a poll with 1,913 registered voters, including 1,351 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Mark DiCamillo noted the race would depend heavily on voter turnout, as each candidate draws support from distinct voter groups.
The survey also highlights a consolidation in the race, with undecided voters dropping to 10 percent from 26 percent in March.
Key Issues Shaping the Campaign
The mayoral contest is heavily influenced by concerns over homelessness, housing affordability, public safety, and responses to recent fires like the Palisades and Sandy Fires. Pratt, for instance, emphasizes Bass’s disaster response, leveraging AI-generated campaign videos to engage voters.
Comparison with Earlier Polls
Previous polling data presents varied perspectives. For instance, an Emerson College poll earlier in May placed Bass at 30 percent against Pratt’s 22 percent and Raman’s 19 percent. March polls by Berkeley found Bass at 25 percent, while other surveys fluctuated, emphasizing the race’s competitiveness.
Insight from Prediction Markets
Despite polling data, prediction markets continue to indicate Bass as the likely candidate to advance. At the time of writing, Bass was listed at roughly 71 percent on Polymarket and 62 percent on Kalshi, showcasing consensus for her advancement.
Stephanie Pratt’s Impact
In a turn of events, Spencer Pratt’s sister, Stephanie, voiced support for him following public disagreements. She conveyed newfound respect for his candidacy, underscoring the mix of celebrity influence and policy debate within the race.
Looking Ahead
The top two candidates from the primary on June 2 will proceed to the November runoff if none wins a majority. As undecided voter numbers shrink, the importance of voter turnout as a decisive factor becomes clearer.
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