Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading the race in California’s gubernatorial primary, according to a recent poll released just days before the upcoming election. Meanwhile, Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton are vying closely for the second spot.
California’s unique top-two primary system places all candidates on the same ballot, regardless of party. The two top vote-getters proceed to the general election in November, even if both belong to the same party. Historically, California has leaned strongly Democratic in statewide elections. In the 2024 election, Kamala Harris, the former Vice President, won her home state by about 20 percentage points against Donald Trump. Arnold Schwarzenegger, the last Republican governor, left office in 2011.
Who Is Running for California Governor?
Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat with potential presidential aspirations for 2028, cannot run due to term limits. This open race has drawn significant attention. The main candidates include:
- Xavier Becerra: A Democrat and former HHS secretary under President Joe Biden
- Chad Bianco: A Republican and Riverside County sheriff
- Steve Hilton: A Republican political commentator and ex-adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron
- Matt Mahan: A Democrat, currently the mayor of San Jose
- Katie Porter: A Democrat who served as a Congress member for an Orange County district
- Tom Steyer: A Democratic businessman
- Tony Thurmond: A Democrat serving as the state’s superintendent of public instruction
- Antonio Villaraigosa: A former Democratic mayor of Los Angeles
Additionally, former Representative Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee ended their campaigns before the primary. Although Democrats dominate the field ideologically, it includes some Republican contenders. Among Democrats, Becerra is seen as aligning with the party establishment, while Porter represents a policy-focused, anti-corporate progressive stand. Villaraigosa is perceived as more centrist. Steyer stands as an outsider with a populist progressive message focusing on climate change and economic inequality, using personal wealth for his campaign. The Republican candidates, Bianco and Hilton, embody traditional and populist outsider views within their party. Facing challenges in a Democratic-majority state, they could still gain ground in this fragmented race, partly due to the top-two primary system. Trump endorsed Hilton, who expressed confidence but vowed to continue fighting hard.
What the New Poll Shows
The latest Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey ahead of Tuesday’s election highlights Becerra leading with 28% support. A close race for second shows Steyer with 22% and Hilton at 21%. Support for other candidates dwindles, with Bianco at 12%, and both Porter and Mahan at 5%. Another 5% of voters remain undecided. When pressed to choose, undecided voters left Becerra stable at 28%, while Hilton and Steyer moved to 23% each.
This poll surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters on May 27-28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted Becerra’s continued lead but highlighted paths for Steyer and Hilton to secure a position in the November general election. He suggested Hilton might benefit if Bianco’s support declines, while Steyer’s progress could depend on young voter turnout and limiting any further inroads by Becerra.
What Other Polls Show
The latest poll reflects a 9-point increase for Becerra since a mid-May survey. Steyer and Hilton have also gained, up by 5 and 4 points, respectively. The May 9-10 poll showed Becerra leading with 19%, and Hilton and Steyer tied at 17%. Bianco was at 11%, with Porter at 10%. This survey also had a 3% margin of error.
Over recent months, polls from Emerson College have shown gains for Becerra and Steyer, with Hilton experiencing growth. Porter’s support has diminished, and the undecided voters have declined. A UC Berkeley poll of 5,472 likely voters conducted between May 19-24 placed Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19%, with a 2% error margin. Bianco had 11%, Porter 7%, and Mahan 4%. Additionally, a PPIC Statewide Survey from May 14-18, with 986 likely voters, gave Becerra 23%, Hilton 20%, Steyer 15%, Bianco 13%, Porter 12%, Mahan 8%, and Villaraigosa 4%. This poll had a 4.1% margin of error, meaning the gap between Becerra and Hilton is not statistically significant.
These polls suggest some comfort for Democrats given past concerns that Hilton and Bianco might both advance to the general election due to internal vote splits among multiple prominent Democrats.
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