A recent Trafalgar Group poll indicates that Representative Nancy Mace is lagging behind several opponents in South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary. This shift follows President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette. Trump’s backing significantly influences the state’s GOP electorate, often consolidating support in a competitive field.
Current Polling and Campaign Reactions
The poll, conducted from June 2-4, suggests a closely contested race without a clear leader. The survey was spearheaded by Republican pollster Robert Cahaly. Mace’s campaign acknowledged the poll results to Newsweek, labeling it as a “suppression poll.” A campaign spokesperson remarked, “Grassroots are dropping their support of Pam like a hot potato. We think Cahaly just slams his head on a keyboard and puts numbers into a tweet.”
Mace, who has represented South Carolina’s 1st congressional district since 2021, initiated her gubernatorial bid last August. Initially a frontrunner, the race has since evolved into a multi-candidate competition. South Carolina election law mandates a runoff if no candidate achieves over 50 percent in the primary.
What Prediction Markets Say
Kalshi reports Mace’s chances as under 4 percent to become the Republican nominee, with Evette at 68 percent and Wilson at 27 percent. On Polymarket, Mace’s probability fell from 45 percent in December to under 5 percent now, while Evette climbed from 30 percent to 68 percent following Trump’s endorsement, with Wilson holding 24 percent.
The Epstein Files and the Fracture With Trump
Previously aligned, Mace’s relationship with Trump became strained over her push to release classified documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Mace, a sexual assault survivor, criticized the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files during Trump’s presidency. Her demands contrasted with other primary contenders who avoided the topic, affecting her political standing.
Addressing Trump’s endorsement of Evette, Mace posted on X: “I know I put the likelihood of an endorsement on the line when I demanded transparency on the Epstein files. I demanded it because you deserved the truth – ALL OF IT – and as a survivor of a corrupt and broken court system, I will always pursue justice for those who deserve it. If sacrificing my values is the price of an endorsement, I will never pay it. South Carolina deserves a Governor who answers to her people, not to the establishment, and not to anyone who believes accountability is negotiable.”
Broader Congressional Fallout
Mace is not alone in facing backlash. Republican Representative Thomas Massie, who with Democrat Representative Ro Khanna pushed for a vote on the document release, praised Mace and others for their advocacy. Despite support from some Republicans, the issue led to political repercussions. Massie lost a primary to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein, and former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene chose not to seek reelection due to her clash with Trump over these files. Boebert now faces a potential Trump-backed primary challenge.
What Lies Ahead
The primary is set for June 9. If no contender secures a majority, the top two will proceed to a runoff. With many undecided voters, candidates are expected to amplify their efforts as Trump’s endorsement and new developments continue to impact the race.
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