Iran War’s 100-Day Milestone

The Iran war has reached its 100th day, with significant impacts and shifting dynamics. While no clear victor has been declared, certain winners and losers have emerged, defying initial predictions. The conflict has led to devastating human consequences, including thousands killed, injured, and displaced, according to varying estimates.

As the war continues, its effects ripple across regions and sectors.

Impact and Developments

The war has expanded to Lebanon, disrupted energy markets, and provoked Iranian retaliations. The U.S. presence and diplomatic strategies face challenges. Key questions arise about who benefits and suffers from these events.

Winners

Iran’s Regime

Despite airstrikes and economic downturns, Iran’s regime endures. U.S. and Israeli efforts have destabilized Iran’s infrastructure and economy, with significant impacts on energy exports. However, Iran imposed its own costs, striking U.S. bases, missile defenses, and affecting Gulf states. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard further complicate oil markets.

Trump’s assertions of a potential deal face persistent rejection from Iran. Access for nuclear inspectors remains limited, as Iran maintains its nuclear ambitions. The issue of nuclear capability remains a key concern.

China

China’s role as Iran’s primary oil buyer strengthens its regional influence. Beijing seeks to shape regional dynamics, contrasting with the U.S. approach. The recent Trump-Xi discussions highlight China’s strategic positioning, even amid domestic challenges.

Economically, China has navigated the war’s shock better than most, displaying resilience despite underlying instability.

Ukraine

The focus on Iran has shifted attention from Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, temporarily benefiting Russia with eased sanctions. Ukraine, however, strengthens its defense capabilities, finding allies in Gulf partners and enhancing its standing with Washington.

Losers

Energy Market

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has spiked oil prices, affecting global markets and consumer costs. The geopolitical risk premium on oil prices reflects the conflict’s impact. While supply hasn’t completely diminished, uncertainty poses ongoing challenges.

Lebanon

Lebanon faces severe consequences from the war’s expansion. Hezbollah’s actions have prompted Israeli military responses, leading to significant territorial and strategic shifts. The Lebanese government struggles to assert control, increasing sectarian tensions and humanitarian crises.

Mass evacuations, property destruction, and displacement exacerbate Lebanon’s precarious situation.

Too Early to Call: Israel’s Position

Israel aimed to degrade Iran and its proxies while empowering Iranian dissidents. While some strategic gains are notable, complete success remains uncertain. Israel’s regional tactics diverge from broader U.S. strategies, aiming to isolate Lebanon’s conflict from Iran.

The ongoing negotiation efforts highlight the complex interplay of regional and international interests.