The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research has released data showing a decline in approval for President Donald Trump among independent voters. This shift is especially evident among those without a college degree. During the 2024 election, almost half of this group viewed Trump favorably, but by spring, only about a quarter maintained a positive opinion.
Historically, there was a considerable education gap among independents regarding Trump. Prior to his second term, those without a college education were more supportive. However, their approval rates have since aligned more closely with educated independents, who have sustained consistently negative views.
The analysis compiles data from nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted from July 2024 to April 2026. It tracks changes as Trump encountered various challenges, such as the passage of a major bill, a government shutdown, and the early phases of the Iran conflict. The decline in support is noticeable across multiple demographic groups, including Black and Hispanic independents, which had shifted toward Trump in the 2024 election.
Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, remarked on the shifting views, highlighting that while opinions among Democrats and Republicans have been stable, independents remain reactive to events.
Trump’s early days in his renewed term saw a rapid decline in support among independents. Initially viewed as the stronger economic candidate, the sentiment shifted drastically soon after he resumed office. Indepependent voters without a college degree saw their approval drop from 48% pre-election to 31% during the initial 100 days. By 2026 spring, this approval further dwindled to one-quarter.
Hispanic and younger independents have also shown a decline in support. Previously, Hispanics were evenly split between Trump and his opponent, Kamala Harris. Now, approval among Hispanic independents has fallen, with predictions indicating only one-quarter support.
The younger independent demographic has grown less supportive due to economic issues, particularly inflation and rising costs, highlighted in recent polls.
Economic concerns primarily drive frustrations among independents. Many who backed Trump in 2024 cited inflation, expressing worries over food and gas prices. The ongoing Iran conflict keeps these concerns relevant. Only about 3 in 10 independents express approval of Trump’s economic handling.
Negative economic perceptions relate directly to negative views of Trump. With 8 in 10 independents considering the economy poor, less than a third approve of Trump’s economic performance. In April, merely 12% believed Trump was effectively addressing living costs.
This AP-NORC research compiled data from 21 surveys covering 4,836 independents. These are individuals not identifying strongly with either major political party.
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