Hours before South Carolina Republicans vote, a final poll suggests the gubernatorial runoff may favor Attorney General Alan Wilson.
Poll Results and Voter Sentiment
An InsiderAdvantage survey from June 19-20 found Wilson with 61% support among 800 likely Republican runoff voters. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette has 29%, leaving 10% undecided. In a low-turnout runoff, small shifts in support can have significant impacts. Both Wilson and Evette have President Donald Trump’s endorsement, making the race a test of turnout and organization.
The poll indicates Wilson’s chances above 98%, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.
Primary Overview
The June 9 primary saw Evette receive 28.9% and Wilson 26.1%, with no clear leader. Representatives Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, who secured 12.1% and 17.1% respectively, have since supported Wilson. Outgoing Governor Henry McMaster backs Evette.
Evette’s campaign portrays her as a proven leader, with a strategy centered on voter outreach across all counties, emphasizing turnout in the quiet runoff period.
Polling Approach and Analysis
The InsiderAdvantage poll employed a mixed-method text and panel survey, weighing responses by age, race, and gender. The study reported a 3.46% margin of error. Results show Wilson’s lead by over 30 points, suggesting voters have consolidated their support behind him. Even with undecided voters potentially favoring Evette, the gap remains substantial.
Earlier Polling Averages
Prior to the primary, polling averages showed a divided field. Evette was slightly ahead with 19.6% to Wilson’s 18.1%. This fragmentation resulted in no dominant frontrunner, with candidates evenly splitting votes.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets now heavily lean towards Wilson’s victory. On platforms like Kalshi, Wilson holds a 98.4% probability. Market shifts often incorporate a range of factors beyond simple polling.
- Kalshi: Wilson 98.4%, Evette 1.5%
- Polymarket: Wilson 98%, Evette almost negligible
General Election Outlook
Experts consider South Carolina a secure Republican state: Inside Elections, Race to the White House, and RealClearPolitics agree. The GOP primary winner will likely be a strong contender against Democratic nominee State Representative Jermaine Johnson, who secured 59.7% in his primary.
The Path Forward
The data suggests Wilson may already be the structural favorite. However, with runoffs known for low turnout, unexpected outcomes can still occur based on voter mobilization, not persuasion. Polls remain open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and turnout will be crucial in determining the final result.
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