Some leading business figures think artificial intelligence (AI) will reduce the traditional 40-hour workweek. Steve Cohen, a financier, suggests a four-day workweek is near. Eric Yuan of Zoom predicts three days, and Bill Gates envisions two days within a decade. Elon Musk even forecasts work becoming optional, comparable to a hobby.
Yet, these changes are not imminent. These leaders could have shortened the workweek long ago, even without AI. Research supports a four-day workweek with unchanged pay. A 2015 trial in Iceland showed productivity levels matched or improved while employee satisfaction increased. This success has since spread across Iceland. In 2022, a UK study involving 61 companies and nearly 3,000 employees showed increased revenue and reduced stress and burnout. New Zealand, Japan, Australia, and Brazil have seen similar results.
Many Americans favor a four-day workweek, yet it remains uncommon. In over four decades as a journalist and editor, I have observed numerous incorrect predictions about the decline of the five-day workweek.
Why do these predictions fail? One reason is the strong attachment executives have to face time with employees. Those advocating for a shorter workweek often demand more in-office time. Musk, for example, requires a minimum of 40 hours a week in the office, and suggests it takes 80 hours a week to truly make an impact. Jensen Huang of Nvidia expects a four-day workweek eventually, but works seven days himself. Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan insists on five office days per week despite envisioning a 3.5-day workweek.
These workweek forecasts also overestimate the time saved by technology. In the early 1980s, as a college intern at The Wall Street Journal, work involved manual typewriters and physical editing processes. While digital tools should have cut work hours, they expanded them by enabling constant publication.
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