Marine Le Pen has been cleared to contest the French presidency in the 2027 election, even though an appeals court upheld her 2025 embezzlement conviction. She will be permitted to run only if she wears an electronic tag, a condition she previously deemed “not possible.” Initially sentenced to five years of ineligibility, the appeals court reduced her restriction to 45 months, with 30 suspended and 15 to be served. Having completed the necessary ineligibility period, she is now eligible to participate in the April 2027 election.
Le Pen has not yet announced her intentions for the upcoming election. She was scheduled to speak at 8 p.m. local time on Tuesday (2 p.m. Eastern). Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party, was seen leaving the Paris Court of Appeal on July 7, 2026, following the verdict on her alleged misappropriation of European public funds.
The National Rally party, formerly known as the National Front, was found guilty in 2025 of misusing European Union funds to pay staff from 2004 to 2016. In addition to the previous year’s sentencing, Le Pen was ordered to pay fines exceeding $100,000 and to serve four years in prison, two of which were suspended. The remaining sentence was to be served under house arrest with electronic tagging. While the appeals process temporarily suspended her house arrest and fine, they were reinstated by the recent court ruling. The judge reduced her total prison sentence to three years, with two years suspended and one year involving house arrest with electronic tagging.
Le Pen had previously stated her unwillingness to campaign under house arrest with an electronic tag, asserting, “If it is a matter of allowing me to run as a candidate while effectively preventing me from campaigning with complete freedom, you will surely understand that that is not possible.” She emphasized the importance of freedom of movement for a presidential candidate, noting that she cannot be constrained by judicial authorization for campaign activities.
She might seek a reduction in the electronic tagging period to six months, allowing her to campaign freely by the start of the year. Her attorney, Rodolphe Bosselut, expressed partial satisfaction with the verdict, describing it as a “good start.” Le Pen, along with eight current or former party members, had faced up to 10 years in prison due to the embezzlement scheme. Additionally, a dozen others who worked as parliamentary aides for the National Rally were also convicted.
In the event that Le Pen could not run, it was assumed that the party would turn to its 30-year-old president, Jordan Bardella. According to Adelaide Zulfikarpasic from pollster Ipsos BVA, Le Pen and Bardella have achieved similar scores in polls, both ranking significantly ahead of other parties, with support levels between 31-36%.
French presidential elections involve two voting rounds. In the first round, scheduled for April 18, 2027, voters will select from a dozen candidates. On May 2, they will choose between the top two candidates from the first round.
The Republican Front, an unofficial coalition opposing far-right candidates in the second election round, has traditionally blocked their success. However, Le Pen’s party has steadily gained ground, prompting some analysts to foresee a potential breakthrough in leadership next year. Le Pen advanced to the second round in both the 2017 and 2022 elections, a notable achievement considering the party’s historical challenges. Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founded the party in 1972 and once captured just 0.74% of the presidential vote. In 2002, he reached the second round against Jacques Chirac, securing under 18% of the final vote.
In 2017, Emmanuel Macron defeated Marine Le Pen with a large margin, which narrowed to 18% in the 2022 election. This progression enhances the possibility of the National Rally winning in 2027. As Macron cannot run next year, having served two terms, the field is more open. Zulfikarpasic remarked on the National Rally’s unprecedented polling levels, indicating a significant rise in support.
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