Top Science Panel Supports Extreme Weather Research Tied to Climate Change

A recent report by the leading scientific advisory body in the nation has highlighted a growing field of science that could enable governments to hold fossil fuel companies accountable for damage related to extreme weather. This field, known as extreme event attribution, attempts to answer a pressing question: How much has a recent weather event, such as a heatwave or wildfire, been exacerbated by climate change?

Scientists have long recognized that global warming, driven by emissions from fossil fuels, increases the intensity and likelihood of certain extreme weather events. Over the last two decades, they have developed tools to estimate just how much global warming influences specific weather occurrences in distinct locations.

The new report, issued by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, does not recommend how attribution science should be applied in policy or legal contexts. However, it suggests that attribution findings could have relevance in certain legal cases. For example, Multnomah County in Oregon, in its $50 billion lawsuit against oil companies, cited an attribution study. This study concluded that a historic 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest would have been “virtually impossible” without human-induced climate change.

As additional states and local governments pursue legal action, supporters of the fossil fuel industry have criticized scientists who perform attribution analyses, labeling them as activists against oil firms. Recently, Energy in Depth, a project related to the Independent Petroleum Association of America, described the National Academies report as “the latest deliverable in a well-funded litigation campaign.”

The report indicates significant advancements in researchers’ methods for extreme event attribution in recent years. With more sophisticated techniques and improved data available, scientists can now assess with greater certainty how much human activity, rather than natural variance in the atmosphere, contributes to particular extreme weather patterns.