CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — A SpaceX rocket stage, adrift since launching lunar landers over a year ago, is predicted to collide with the moon. The collision will occur near Einstein Crater, carving out a crater and releasing dust and rubble. Bill Gray, an expert in space tracking, predicts an impact at 5,400 mph, seven times the speed of sound. The eastern U.S., Canada, and parts of South America will have optimal viewing opportunities. Although scientists are not deeply concerned, the event underscores the increasing clutter in space. “Things are getting crowded up there,” Gray said, intending to view the aftermath from New Brunswick, Canada.
Originally, SpaceX did not intend for the rocket to hit the moon. Experts suggest the impact could have been avoided if the upper stage had been directed to orbit the sun. This incident marks the second accidental crash of a dead rocket on the moon. In 2022, a Chinese rocket segment created a pair of craters on the far side of the moon. The forthcoming collision offers valuable insights due to its visibility on the moon’s near side. It will release the energy of three tons of TNT.
The impact flash, lasting under a second, will likely be too faint to see without equipment. However, telescopes might observe the debris plume for tens of minutes as it stretches miles into space. Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Benjamin Fernando noted, “The gravity on the moon is low, and there is no wind to blow the dust away.” He encourages both professional and amateur observations of the event. “Part of our interest is assessing how debris impacts future astronauts,” Fernando added.
Fernando estimates an impact crater nearly 90 feet across and 16 feet deep. Although too small to observe from Earth, spacecraft could view this impact. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will document the event. Danuri is expected to pass within a mile of the site two minutes before the crash.
The rocket stage, approximately 40 feet long and weighing 10,000 pounds, launched two private lunar landers in January 2025: Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost and Japan-based ispace’s lander. While Blue Ghost succeeded, the ispace lander crashed. By observing deliberate impacts like this, scientists can learn more about potential hazards to the moon.
Past US missions during the Apollo era aimed rocket parts at the moon for seismic research. In 2009, NASA deliberately crashed the LCROSS spacecraft and upper stage to find ice near the lunar south pole.
With a renewed interest in lunar missions, experts stress the importance of monitoring space debris and implementing traffic control before sending more robots and astronauts. The US and China are competing to land astronauts on the moon soon. SpaceX and Blue Origin are competing to design a lander for NASA’s Artemis IV mission. Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell noted, “This impact will not be a problem but, in a future with lunar bases, similar impacts would be an issue.”
___
The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
Leave a Reply