U.S. Military Faces Need to Boost Munitions Production

The U.S. military has underestimated munitions usage during its conflict with Iran. Over a ten-week period, the Army has depleted much of its long-range missile stockpile. The shortfall includes ATACMS, Precision Strike Missiles, THAAD, and Patriot air defense systems. The Navy’s supply of Tomahawk and Standard air defense missiles is also low. Likewise, the Air Force faces a shortage of joint air-to-surface standoff missiles.

The War Department is addressing these shortages by signing long-term production agreements. A notable contract with Lockheed-Martin aims to produce Patriot missiles, potentially worth $59 billion over seven years. The contract plans to triple Raytheon’s production rate by 2030. To meet targets, Lockheed-Martin will increase its workforce by 50% and expand facilities.

Similarly, RTX, Raytheon’s parent, has agreed to boost Tomahawk production from 60 to at least 1,000 annually. Production of AMRAAM missiles will increase from 1,200 to over 1,900. The company also plans to raise Standard Missile production from 300 to 500 per year.

“This effort is critical, given current insufficient stockpiles,” said an industry insider.

These shortages stem from several factors:

• Post-Cold War assumptions led policymakers to reduce munitions.
• Funds for munitions were diverted to other military programs.
• The military misjudged consumption rates, especially during conflicts in Iraq and with the Houthis.

Under the Biden administration, munitions production efforts have increased. Both the Trump administration and Congress have added resources to this effort. Despite increased funding, raising production levels remains challenging. Issues with subcontractors and workforce shortages persist. Lockheed-Martin may struggle to meet targets by 2030, even with around-the-clock production.

The U.S. continues to face global threats. Concurrently, the Pentagon juggles projects like submarine production and missile defense systems. There is concern that once conflicts end, priorities could shift again. The administration and Congress need to avoid repeating past lapses to ensure readiness for future conflicts.

Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He previously served as undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense.