Darline Graham secured the Republican nomination in South Carolina’s Senate race on Tuesday. She will compete against Democrat Annie Andrews in the November general election to replace the late U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham.
Graham, backed by President Donald Trump, triumphed over Representative Ralph Norman in the Republican primary. She won approximately 52 percent of the votes according to the Associated Press, which declared her the winner at 9:01 p.m. ET Tuesday.
The special primary election in South Carolina took place following Lindsey Graham’s death on July 11 due to an aortic dissection. Lindsey Graham, who served the state in the Senate since 2003, was re-elected earlier this year. His passing necessitated a new Republican candidate. Upon Trump’s recommendation, Republican Governor Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham to fill the seat temporarily.
In June, Annie Andrews secured the Democratic nomination. South Carolina poses challenges for Democrats, who hope the race might turn competitive as Trump’s national approval rating dips amid economic concerns.
Andrews previously expressed optimism, telling Newsweek she believes the seat could potentially favor Democrats this year. “We’ve had a steady increase in our fundraising. We’re feeling really good about the grassroots aspect of our fundraising,” Andrews stated.
She noted that Republican candidates are vying for Trump’s loyalty, arguing the administration failed to tackle economic issues like gas prices, potentially turning the race into an opportunity for change.
Polls and Predictions
Polling on this race has been limited since Graham’s death. Andrews’ campaign disclosed an internal poll indicating a tight contest, although independent surveys are absent; typically, independent polling is trusted more than internal assessments.
Before Graham’s death, a June poll by Andrews’ campaign suggested a close race, with Graham leading by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent. Impact Research conducted the poll with 700 likely voters from June 17 to June 22, 2026.
Independent polling remains unavailable.
Prediction Markets and Forecasters
According to prediction markets, Republicans hold a significant advantage. Kalshi showed Republicans with approximately an 88 percent chance of winning the seat, while Polymarket indicated an 87 percent chance as of Tuesday evening.
Prediction markets involve real-money contracts tied to political outcomes, estimating probabilities through trader actions. They reflect current sentiment but are not always accurate predictors of the future.
Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as solid or safe for Republicans.
Democratic Battle for South Carolina
Democrats have a challenging path in South Carolina. Historically, it’s a Republican stronghold. The state supported Trump by 18 points in 2024 and has backed Republican candidates overwhelmingly in recent elections. The last Democratic presidential nominee South Carolina supported was Jimmy Carter in 1976.
South Carolina elected its last Democratic senator, Ernest Hollings, in 1998.
Despite attempts to make South Carolina competitive, Democrats face hurdles. The state’s racial polarization favors the GOP even though cities like Charleston and Columbia lean Democratic.
Efforts by Democrats in recent cycles haven’t succeeded yet. In the 2020 election, Democrat Jaime Harrison drew media attention but lost by 10 points against Lindsey Graham. In 2018, Governor McMaster won by 8 points in a close race by South Carolina standards.
Democrats hope 2026 could bring different dynamics with Trump’s approval rating hitting new lows. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows 65 percent disapproving of Trump’s performance, while 33 percent approve.
Furthermore, Civiqs polling indicates a 42 percent approval rate in South Carolina, with 51 percent disapproving.
Amid Trump’s declining popularity, Democrats aim to widen the battleground strategically. Still, Republicans and forecasters project Republican hold post-November midterms.
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