The Trump administration is currently 181 days into what began as Operation Epic Fury, evolving into a lasting ceasefire after 38 days. Despite efforts to use military and diplomatic strategies to conclude the ongoing conflict, the Islamic Republic of Iran has resisted them. Now, President Trump has shifted his focus to economic measures, employing sanctions alongside a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Last Wednesday, Trump announced on Truth Social an “Economic D-Day,” pledging to deploy “economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale” against Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned expecting cooperation from both allies and rivals in this intensified campaign. Bessent emphasized, “This is going to be the greatest coordinated economic isolation in history, with a clear stance: you are either with us or against us.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed such threats, asserting they would backfire. China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Lin Jian, criticized the U.S. approach, suggesting that sanctions and pressure would not resolve the Iranian conflict, advocating for political and diplomatic solutions instead.
The White House remains uncertain about Iran’s internal leadership dynamics. Attempts to negotiate with figures like Araghchi, Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Maj. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi were unproductive. The question persists: is Trump’s Economic D-Day effectively a repackaged call for regime change?
Since initiating Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, regime change has seemingly been the objective. Both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have publicly stated this goal. Trump’s speech on February 28 and Netanyahu’s remarks on March 13 reinforce their intentions to empower Iranian citizens to reclaim their nation.
The strategy aimed to compel the Iranian populace to challenge the regime, yet removing key figures like the Supreme Leader did not yield the anticipated uprising. Iran’s conventional military significantly weakened, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—central to the regime—remains robust. The Basij paramilitary continues its mission, maintaining control over the Iranian people.
On day 38, Trump shifted from military efforts to diplomatic negotiations. However, even with emerging new negotiators, the regime’s core objectives remained unchanged. A proposed 14-point memorandum and 60-day ceasefire proved ineffective due to discrepancies within Iran’s leadership.
Iran steadfastly refuses to relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz, as well as halting their nuclear pursuits. Military skirmishes continued as Iran exploited its strategic advantage.
The Iranian administration never perceived the Trump administration as posing a significant threat, concentrating solely on maintaining regime stability rather than public welfare.
Faced with an impasse, Trump reconsidered his approach. He remained wary of full-scale regime change, recalling Gen. Colin Powell’s cautionary words to President George W. Bush regarding post-conflict governance responsibilities.
Trump witnessed the aftermath in Iraq and Afghanistan, electing to avoid nation-building responsibilities in Iran. Preferring instead to pursue negotiations with the current regime, he still left room for potential public-led change.
In January 2026, widespread economic protests across Iran initiated an uprising against the regime. Originating in the Tehran Grand Bazaar, demonstrations rapidly expanded to over 400 nationwide locations. Protesters demanded an end to the Islamic Republic amid a severe economic crisis and currency collapse.
By late December 2025, the Iranian rial hit its lowest level against the U.S. dollar, severely impacting both public and merchants’ pricing capabilities. Resulting security forces responded with a harsh crackdown, leading to an extensive internet blackout and resulting in civilian casualties and arrests.
Operation Economic Outcast commenced Monday afternoon, as conveyed by Bessent. The rial experienced further depreciation, reaching 2.02 million to the U.S. dollar by morning trading. Reflecting historical economic distress similar to January 2026 conditions, questions arise concerning potential regime overthrow intent.
Strategic conditions are established, yet the necessity for a plan to support and exploit these conditions poses another challenge. An effective national power requires cohesive utilization of all instruments. Has the White House internalized this lesson?
Col. Jonathan Sweet, retired military intelligence officer, served 30 years. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth contributes insights on national security and foreign policy. Together, they co-founded INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.
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