Adopting the ‘Godfather Test’ for NATO’s Defense Strategy

In ‘The Godfather’, Don Vito Corleone issues a stern warning: any harm to his son Michael, even if it seems accidental, will lead to consequences. Similarly, NATO and the EU should adopt this approach when considering actions by Russia, particularly under Vladimir Putin.

If a drone breaches Eastern European airspace or undersea power cables are severed, it should be presumed that Russia is responsible. When government networks face cyberattacks or political figures are targeted with disinformation, again, consider Russia accountable until proven otherwise.

“Whatever disguise is chosen, I will know where it came from and hold those responsible.” – Don Vito Corleone

Traditionally, Western democracies presume innocence until guilt is clearly proven. However, this principle becomes a strategic weakness against Russia, where proof may be incomplete or compromised by security concerns.

Putin has forfeited the benefit of the doubt through invasions, cyberattacks, and covert operations. Russia’s consistent pattern of anonymous attacks in the gray zone between peace and war aims to weaken adversaries without provoking decisive responses.

Instead of requiring courtroom-grade proof, NATO should assume responsibility lies with Russia for suspicious actions threatening member states. This shifts the burden of proof and deters future aggression.

Responses should be asymmetric, targeting areas important to Russia. This might involve disrupting military capabilities or financial streams without announcing the actions publicly, mirroring Russia’s opaque methods.

• Do not require ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’ levels of proof.
• Use intelligence and patterns of conduct as bases for decisions.
• Act quietly without revealing capabilities or methods.

This policy acknowledges risks but recognizes larger dangers in allowing unchecked escalation by Russia. Europe’s intricate legal frameworks are exploited by a Russia skilled in keeping information incomplete, necessitating a new approach.

The presumption must be clear: if harm befalls NATO or EU countries, presume the source is the entity that has continuously threatened and attacked. Respond with enough force to ensure future actions carry greater burdens for Russia.