Anthony DiLorenzo, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, won the Republican primary in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. The Associated Press reported his victory over Hollie Noveletsky, a former vice chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, with DiLorenzo securing 51.5% of the vote against Noveletsky’s 26.8%.
This win underlines the influence Trump’s endorsements hold in GOP primaries, yet it is worth noting that Trump-backed candidates don’t always prevail. Other Republican candidates have defeated those endorsed by him in recent contests.
Significance of DiLorenzo’s Win
DiLorenzo’s success highlights Trump’s continued popularity among Republican voters. This outcome came despite a poll from the University of New Hampshire indicating a tougher race for DiLorenzo, with Noveletsky leading by three points among 443 surveyed Republican voters.
Trump’s Endorsement Track Record
Trump endorsed DiLorenzo via Truth Social, praising his business acumen. Trump has backed hundreds of candidates nationwide, achieving a 96% success rate in primary endorsements this year, according to Ballotpedia.
Nevertheless, some Trump-endorsed candidates have faced defeats. In Tennessee, for example, Trump’s choice, Representative Andy Ogles, lost in the 5th Congressional District to Charlie Hatcher, endorsed by Governor Bill Lee. Similar outcomes occurred in primaries across Florida, Michigan, and for several gubernatorial races.
Despite declining national approval ratings, Trump’s support remains strong among Republicans. A YouGov and The Economist poll shows him with a +62 net approval rating within the party.
Outlook for NH-01 in November
Currently held by Democrat Chris Pappas, New Hampshire’s 1st District appears competitive. Prediction markets lean toward a Democratic hold. Kalshi and Polymarket estimate Democrats have around an 88% to 89% chance of retaining the seat.
While the district favored Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, Republicans aim to capitalize on local dynamics. GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte is favored for reelection, and the Senate race tightens.
The district includes competitive regions like Portsmouth and Dover. Republicans perform better in Manchester’s suburbs and parts of the Lakes Region, maintaining competition.
With Democrats traditionally winning broader margins, Pappas secured reelection by eight points in 2024. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently project the race as favoring Democrats.
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