Major cities, including Los Angeles and Atlanta, may experience more intense rainfall, flooding, and other weather disruptions this winter due to the strengthening El Niño, according to Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert.
Federal forecasters announced that El Niño is likely to intensify through the end of the year, with over a 90 percent probability of becoming a very strong event during the fall and winter seasons.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the Pacific that influences global weather. La Niña serves as its counterpart with cooler conditions.
Common impacts of El Niño include stormier weather in the South, drier conditions in some northern regions, and alterations in hurricane activity. Past strong El Niño episodes, such as the 1997-98 and 2015-16 events, have coincided with severe weather extremes, including significant flooding and global temperature records.
Cities Facing Significant Winter Weather Changes
“A strong El Niño tends to have the greatest impact on cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston, and Atlanta due to increased rainfall and potential flooding,” stated Pastelok. “These areas often see more frequent storms during late fall and winter. California, with its landscape, is particularly susceptible to landslides.”
River levels could rise rapidly along the Mississippi River, Tennessee Valley, and in the Carolinas, affecting cities situated along these waterways.
Pastelok noted that East Coast cities such as Norfolk, Virginia, Atlantic City, and Boston, Massachusetts might experience strong storms with coastal flooding and high winds.
NOAA’s Winter Outlook
Recent maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center show temperature and precipitation forecasts for December 2026 through February 2027.
Above-normal temperatures are expected in various regions, including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The strongest warm signals appear along the northern tier.
The South is also likely to experience above-normal temperatures, though California and the Southwest might see less clear trends.
Precipitation forecasts indicate wetter-than-normal conditions from Southern California to the Southwest, southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Florida, and parts of the East Coast.
The CPC reported a 75 percent chance that El Niño will reach historic strength during October to December, surpassing records dating back to 1950, an increase from the 69 percent probability in their August update. Although such strength raises the likelihood of typical El Niño weather impacts, these effects are not guaranteed.
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