Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ high-profile U.S. Senate race. A recent poll by SoCal Strategies shows Talarico with 50% of the vote, and Paxton at 45%. This marks a significant shift from June, when Paxton led with 49% against Talarico’s 47%.
Talarico Shows Strength Across Demographics
Conducted September 12-13 among 649 likely voters, the survey indicates Talarico’s growing support among various voter groups. His backing among Hispanic voters rose from 10% in June to 38%. Independent voters’ support increased from 10% to 45%. The Democratic candidate also gained ground among self-identified Republicans, rising to 12%, and holds 46% support among voters aged 18 to 29.
Paxton remains popular among white voters, age 45-64 voters, and those over 65, leading with 56%, 49%, and 51% respectively.
Potential Tightening as Election Day Nears
The poll suggests tightening as the election approaches, noting more undecided Republican than Democratic voters. “Much like the last poll, Republicans are less decided than Democrats,” the survey report stated. For Paxton to succeed, he must win nearly all undecided Republican voters and persuade some of the 12% who support Talarico.
Ex-President Donald Trump supports Paxton, calling him “the greatest attorney general in America,” while criticizing Talarico with harsh nicknames in public speeches.
Polling Trends in the Senate Race
Texas historically favors Republican nominees, with Democratic hopes pinned on 2026 offering new opportunities. Trump won Texas by a substantial margin in 2024. The state hasn’t elected Democrats to statewide office since 1994, making it a Republican stronghold.
Polling shows narrow leads for both Paxton and Talarico at different campaign points. A YouGov/Univision poll had Talarico leading by 5 points among 1,000 registered voters. Another poll by Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation found the candidates almost tied, with Talarico slightly ahead.
Additional surveys, including an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll, show near deadlock with 47% backing Paxton and 46% for Talarico. A Fox News poll found Talarico slightly ahead with 51% compared to Paxton’s 48%.
Prediction markets reflect close margins; Kalshi shows Talarico at 52%, Paxton at 48%. Forecasters from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as a toss-up.
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