The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reported that the Trump administration’s mass deportations of undocumented migrants have contributed to lower rents in several Sun Belt cities, such as Austin, Nashville, and Phoenix. Through a social media post on X, the department stated, “DHS is reducing your rent, especially in states that cooperate with ICE.”
Specific data shared in the post noted significant rent reductions: Texas, home to about a quarter of ICE arrests in July, experienced notable declines in cities such as San Antonio (4.8%), Austin (4.3%), Dallas, and Houston (around 3%). Miami’s average rent fell by 2.6%, Phoenix by 4.2%, Atlanta by 3.2%, Nashville by 5.3%, and New Orleans by 8%.
However, DHS did not disclose the sources or methods for their cited rent figures, which do not match publicly available rental indexes. The post claims unspecified research supports the idea that “illegal-worker inflows push rents and home prices up.” This statement aligns with a working paper by economists Daniel J. Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou, which suggests a surge in illegal immigration under President Joe Biden increased U.S. housing costs. Despite this, other housing experts criticized the study’s methodology.
While DHS asserts lower costs of living result from mass deportations, metropolitan areas mentioned were already experiencing price corrections. These corrections were influenced by a construction boom in new apartments and multifamily housing. Newsweek reached out to DHS for comments via email.
A Supply Boom in the Sun Belt
Texas cities such as Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio have been at the forefront of new apartment building, addressing a domestic migration surge between 2020 and 2022. According to an August 2025 study by RentCafe, these cities ranked amongst the top for new apartment construction. New apartment units increased competition among landlords, reducing rent prices.
Economic factors like higher prices and return-to-office trends in coastal cities have diminished the demand for housing, leading to falling rents. Sample rent prices reported by Zillow indicate a decrease: Austin ($1,990, down $10), Dallas ($1,950, down $45), Houston ($1,900, unchanged), and San Antonio ($1,600, down $80). Other cities listed include Miami ($3,150, down $10) and Nashville ($2,200, down $50).
DHS did not provide detailed figures on how many renters had left the mentioned cities due to immigration enforcement, nor the impact of deportations versus housing supply on rent drops. Notably, similar rent declines from oversupply were observed in Las Vegas and San Diego: Las Vegas ($1,950, unchanged) and San Diego ($3,100, down $8). Nationwide, declining median rents for studios through two-bedroom properties were noted by Realtor.com.
Can Mass Deportations Lower Rent?
Reducing housing costs via mass deportations was once a Trump campaign promise. Statistical data revealed the administration deported over 605,000 undocumented migrants, triggering about 1.9 million self-deportations since January 2025.
Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, suggested that large-scale deportations could free up housing. However, the benefit might be offset by a depleted workforce in the construction industry, employing about 1.6 million undocumented immigrants. According to the American Business Immigration Coalition, immigrants accounted for over 23% of U.S. construction workers in 2023, with approximately half undocumented.
The potential reduction in the labor supply could elevate building costs, hinder new home production, and limit hiring in construction-dependent industries, notes Danielle Hale of Realtor.com. The National Association of Home Builders echoed concerns, noting labor shortages could increase home prices. A July 2025 Reuters investigation highlighted a $20 million project delay in Alabama post-ICE raid due to workforce fears.
For further insights, Newsweek editors Ben Kelly and Cristina Diciu contributed to this analysis.
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