Mary Peltola, a Democrat, is extending her lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in the contested Alaska U.S. Senate race. The pair is scheduled for a debate on Thursday night. Recent polls show Peltola pulling ahead, igniting Democratic hopes of reclaiming a Senate seat last held in early 2015. Sullivan, the current incumbent, won the seat after Mark Begich lost his reelection bid in 2014.
Thursday night’s debate will occur from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. local time. The event follows similar debates held for the U.S. House and gubernatorial races in Alaska.
“Alaskans know that Mary is the only candidate who will tackle the rigged system in DC, reduce costs, and prioritize Alaska,” an Alaskans for Mary representative told Newsweek. “Sullivan has to defend his record of elevating prices and serving special interests, while Mary will lay out her vision for Alaska’s future.”
Newsweek attempted to reach Sullivan’s campaign for a comment on Thursday afternoon.
Significance of the Alaska Senate Race in the 2026 Midterms
Alaska’s Senate race is pivotal as Democrats aim to flip control of the upper chamber. Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority. Despite Republicans winning every presidential election in Alaska since 1968, the state sometimes splits tickets in congressional and gubernatorial elections. Peltola, who won a U.S. Representative seat in 2022, is now pursuing the Senate position.
Recent polls summarized by The New York Times reveal Peltola’s lead over Sullivan in three instances since late September. Earlier, the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjusted Alaska’s race status from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic,” indicating Democratic gains.
Poll Comparisons: Peltola vs. Sullivan
In the recent InsiderAdvantage poll, Peltola leads by a margin of 6 points, polling at 48.2% to Sullivan’s 42.6% among 1,200 likely voters surveyed between October 9 and 10. The expected result in Alaska’s ranked choice voting could be 50.1% for Peltola and 48% for Sullivan according to the poll.
The Alaska Survey Research poll shows a narrower margin, with Peltola at 47% compared to Sullivan’s 45% in an initial round. In the final round, Peltola’s lead increases to 51% against Sullivan’s 49%. A New York Times/Siena University poll offered Peltola her largest lead, 50% to Sullivan’s 43%, sampling 504 likely voters.
Sullivan’s last lead was in the Trafalgar Group poll between September 22 and 24, where 47% chose Sullivan over Peltola’s 46% among 1,079 likely voters.
Prediction Markets Lean Toward Peltola
Prediction markets show growing confidence in Peltola unseating Sullivan. Before Thursday’s debate, Peltola holds a 74% chance of winning according to current trends, a jump from 64% in mid-September.
“Traders are showing more confidence in Peltola compared to the polls. Tonight’s debate is crucial, and any significant misstep will affect market prices swiftly,” Lucas Kohorst, co-founder of Adjacent Markets, explained to Newsweek.
Key Concerns for Alaska Voters
Alaska’s high cost of living and rising fuel prices, affected by tensions with Iran, remain central issues for voters this cycle. On Thursday, the state’s regular gasoline price averaged $4.96 per gallon, exceeding the national average of $4.33. Utility companies express concerns over fuel costs, with Enstar Natural Gas president John Sims highlighting potential supply shortages.
Fisheries also dominate election discussions, given commercial fishing’s importance to Alaska’s economy. Declining fish populations and industry health drive campaign dialogue.
Watching the Alaska Senate Debate
The debate between Peltola and Sullivan will start at 7 p.m. local time on October 15. Alaska Public Media TV, Alaska’s News Source, and KTOO 360TV will broadcast the event. KSKA 91.1 FM Anchorage, KSKA 91.9 FM Girdwood, and other Alaska Public Radio Network stations offer live audio. Streaming is available live at alaskapublic.org.
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