The Texas Senate race is closely contested, with Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico nearly tied. Turnout will play a crucial role in deciding the outcome. Paxton benefits from Texas’s Republican leanings, while Talarico gains support from voters concerned about the economy and his perceived character.
Talarico’s position improves as more Democrats commit to voting, leaving the race undecided in the final weeks. A higher Republican turnout could shift the balance. Paxton’s supporters back him for being the GOP nominee, opposing Talarico, and endorsing President Trump.
Talarico’s Strengths
National economic issues are impacting Texas, with the cost of living as the top concern for voters. Many Texans report hardships from rising prices, with Talarico leading among these voters. Voters favor his character over Paxton’s, which greatly influences his support base. Talarico receives 5% support from Republicans and attracts 9% of voters who typically do not support Democrats but choose him this time.
Paxton’s Advantages
Texas supports the Trump administration’s deportation program more than the national average, benefitting Paxton. Republicans feel threatened by Talarico’s policies on culture and lifestyle. Paxton’s support largely stems from Trump loyalists. Talarico is perceived as “very liberal” by many, causing them to vote for Paxton.
Demographics on Voter Influence
With more Republicans than Democrats in Texas, Talarico needs strong support from independents and a shift from some GOP voters. He must also engage new voters and ensure high turnout from younger voters, who traditionally vote at lower rates than older groups. Latino voters, having leaned towards Trump in 2024, now largely support Talarico. They are more affected by economic issues and question Paxton’s character.
Governor Race
In the governor’s race, incumbent Greg Abbott leads over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Abbott receives support from 7% of Talarico voters.
This CBS News/YouGov survey included 1,492 registered voters in Texas from October 8-16, 2026. It was weighted by demographics and prior presidential vote, with a margin of error of ± 3.4 points for registered voters and ± 3.5 points for likely voters.
David Van Riper contributed to this report.
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