On Wednesday, a poll from The New York Times/Siena Research Institute revealed a close race between Republican candidate Darline Graham and Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews for the U.S. Senate in South Carolina. Both are neck and neck at 48 percent support, with 3 percent of voters still unsure.
This poll emerges just ahead of President Donald Trump’s scheduled appearance in South Carolina, where he plans to support Graham during a rally in Rock Hill. Historically, midterm elections are seen as a reflection of the current political climate. The president’s party often loses seats, and Trump previously secured a win in South Carolina against then-Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Background and Political Dynamics
Darline Graham succeeded her brother, the late Senator Lindsey Graham, who passed away due to aortic dissection from arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Lindsey Graham had won the Senate seat during the 2020 election. Following his sudden death at 71, Darline stepped into his position with Trump’s support.
Despite Trump’s backing, his overall approval has recently declined, particularly on issues like the economy, immigration, and jobs. This decline occurs as many American households continue to face affordability challenges.
Detailed Poll Insights
The poll highlights gender and independent voter preferences. Men favor Graham 55 percent to Andrews’ 40 percent, while women support Andrews 54 percent to Graham’s 43 percent. Among Independents, 57 percent support Andrews, whereas 37 percent back Graham.
Graham finds significant backing from white voters aged 45 and above, those with and without a college degree, and Republican likely voters. Among 2024 Trump supporters, 89 percent back Graham, contrasting with 8 percent who favor Andrews.
The poll indicates that 51 percent believe Andrews would handle the economy better than Graham, who garnered 43 percent support in this area. On immigration, Graham leads with 50 percent over Andrews’ 44 percent. Furthermore, 49 percent think Andrews would advocate best for ordinary South Carolinians, opposed to 46 percent for Graham.
This survey, conducted with 707 likely voters in South Carolina from October 19-26, 2026, has a margin of error of 4.3 percent.
Political Commentary and Poll Trends
The Cook Political Report categorizes this race as leaning Republican. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket reflected Graham’s lead as of Wednesday afternoon.
D. Stephen Voss, a political scholar at the University of Kentucky, shared insights with Newsweek, suggesting that Democratic margins in polls have been increasing. While polls may not predict outcomes, Republicans maintain hope that their support level has stabilized, especially in traditionally Republican-favored states like South Carolina.
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, commented that while current polls suggest a challenging race, a late surge from Republicans appears likely if they rally in the final days.
Other Polling Data
An InsiderAdvantage poll echoed a close contest—Graham at 46 percent, followed by Andrews at 45 percent, Libertarian Kasie Whitener at 2 percent, and Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett at 3 percent, with 4 percent undecided. This poll included 1,200 likely voters in South Carolina, surveyed from September 28-29, 2026, with a 2.83 percent margin of error.
An earlier InsiderAdvantage poll showed a similar narrow lead for Graham, emphasizing the high number of undecided voters at 8.5 percent.
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