Recent coastal flooding in Southern California highlights the potential severity of an El Niño-driven winter. Sea levels are rising considerably, and this trend is expected to worsen. Key factors include record-high ocean temperatures, unusually high tides, and the potential for strong storms that could bring large waves.
Record Sea Level Rise
Last week, sea levels in California reached unprecedented heights. In Los Angeles, San Diego Bay, Santa Barbara, and La Jolla, maximum sea levels were broken. Specifically, the San Pedro gauge in Los Angeles recorded a sea level of 8.19 feet, surpassing the 2005 El Niño winter record.
Data shows that the average sea level was higher than expected in several cities:
- San Diego: 1.4 feet
- Los Angeles: 1.3 feet
- San Francisco: 1.1 feet
This rise is partly due to the high ocean temperatures, which increase water volume. The upcoming king tides during holiday seasons could further elevate sea levels, leading to more significant flooding risks.
Impact of Warm Ocean Waters
Current oceanic temperatures are alarmingly high, contributing to the sea level rise. At Scripps Pier in La Jolla, the sea surface temperature recently hit 75.4 degrees, breaking historic records.
Warmer waters play a role in the extreme marine heat wave, intensifying El Niño effects. This phenomenon was evident with recent damage along the coast. For instance, in Huntington Beach, 114 structures experienced flooding, and nearby coastal areas suffered similar impacts.
El Niño and Kelvin Waves
El Niño intensifies through Kelvin waves, which transport warm water across the Pacific Ocean. These waves have contributed significantly to the recent increases in sea level.
Experts like Robbie Munroe and Dillon Amaya point out that these waves can replicate decades of sea level rise in a short period, causing erosion and flooding. This effect strains California’s coastline and raises concerns about long-term impacts.
Future Concerns
Predictions indicate substantial increases in sea levels this winter, resulting in heightened flooding risks. The convergence of high tides, ocean temperatures, and potential storms present challenges for California’s coastal areas.
Science suggests more than a foot of additional sea level rise in Los Angeles through mid-century. California has already experienced significant increases, indicating a shift towards this new reality.
El Niño’s current influence extends beyond coastal areas, impacting inland regions like Arizona and the Four Corners. Record marine heat wave along Baja California drives atmospheric moisture, exacerbating rainfall and flooding risks in these areas.
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