The fate of Congress hinges on a handful of critical races that will decide control of the House and Senate for the rest of Donald Trump’s presidency. Currently, Republicans hold both chambers with 53 Senate seats and 218 House seats.
Historical Context of Midterm Elections
Historically, the party holding power tends to lose seats in the midterms. In 2022, Democrats under President Joe Biden lost nine House seats. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, Republicans lost about 40 House seats. Many expect Democrats to gain enough seats to take the House.
The Senate remains uncertain with some races tightly contested, many in states Trump won in 2024. With campaigns, super PACs, and billionaire donors involved, hundreds of millions of dollars are focused on a few races.
Key Senate Races
Alaska Senate
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola. There’s also Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot, which reports suggest was a Democratic strategy to aid Peltola. An investigation was ordered by Alaska’s Governor into this campaign.
Polling shows Sullivan and Peltola nearly tied. Despite Trump winning Alaska in 2024 by 13 points, the race is close, with Trump campaigning in Wasilla for Sullivan. Alaska’s rank-choice voting could affect the outcome. The Justice Department has filed a lawsuit related to potential voter confusion over two candidates with similar names.
Iowa Senate
This race seeks to replace outgoing Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson faces Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. Though Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, polls suggest a competitive race.
Hinson has distanced herself from Trump but recently campaigned with him. Both candidates are fighting a tough battle.
Michigan Senate
Michigan’s open Senate seat is highly contested. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed competes against Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed could become the first Muslim senator, facing strong opposition from Republicans.
His primary win over Rep. Haley Stevens was contentious due to his stance on Israel. Prominent Democrats, including Barack Obama and Kamala Harris, have supported him. Polls show him leading Rogers, often within the margin of error.
Maine Senate
Republican Sen. Susan Collins runs for a sixth term in the Democratic-leaning state of Maine. She faces Democrat Troy Jackson. Collins, an impeachment vote against Trump, has seen criticism both for supporting and opposing Trump policies.
She touts her work on federal funding for Maine. Polls show a narrow race with Jackson slightly ahead.
Ohio Senate
Democrat Sherrod Brown contends with Republican Jon Husted. This special election follows Sen. Bernie Moreno’s 2024 victory. Over $200 million has been spent on this race.
Ohio leans Republican, but polls show Brown leading. The election fills the rest of Moreno’s term, with a full-term election in 2028.
Kansas Senate
The longstanding Republican stronghold faces a challenge as Adam Hamilton, founder of a major Methodist congregation, contests Republican Roger Marshall.
Marshall’s medical debt collection controversies have been highlighted by Democrats. Recent polls show Hamilton leading by up to five points.
Texas Senate
Democrat James Talarico competes against Republican Ken Paxton. The race could see Texas elect its first Democratic Senator since 1993.
This race has exceeded $500 million in spending. Recent polls show a tight competition, with an even split in some surveys.
New Hampshire Senate
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s seat is contested by Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John Sununu. Pappas leads in recent polls; Sununu’s family name provides strong recognition.
The power of the Sununu brand may influence Republican voter turnout.
Notable House Races
Michigan-07
Rep. Tom Barrett faces progressive William Lawrence. Lawrence leads in polls in this district impacted by former Rep. Slotkin’s Senate run.
Texas-15
Monica De La Cruz faces Bobby Pulido in this Hispanic-majority district. Pulido, a Latin Grammy winner, shows a slight lead, though races in this region have been unpredictable.
Ohio-07
Rep. Max Miller competes with Brian Poindexter. Allegations against Miller have gained attention. Despite this, the district traditionally votes Republican.
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