The 2026 midterms have arrived, and the elections may demonstrate the political influence of Silicon Valley and responses to the AI industry. A significant figure in these dynamics is SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who is heavily invested in opposing a Texas Senate seat’s potential Democratic win.
Ohio Senate Race
Candidates: Republican Sen. Jon Husted, Democrat Sherrod Brown, Libertarian Bill Redpath, Independent Greg Levy.
Current Status: Husted, trying to retain Vice President JD Vance’s Senate seat, contends with Brown’s strong challenge. Brown criticizes Husted’s previous support for data center development, while Husted shifts responsibility to communities and withdraws support for tax incentives for such projects. The Republican campaign warns that Husted’s defeat could signal political caution towards AI labs.
Polls Close: 7:30 p.m. EST.
Outlook: Rated as a “Toss-Up” by the Cook Political Report.
Background: Previously, Donald Trump won Ohio by 11 points, whereas Brown narrowly lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno by under 4 points.
Texas Senate Race
Candidates: Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Democrat State Rep. James Talarico, Libertarian Ted Brown.
Current Status: Paxton aims to maintain Republican control following Trump’s endorsement over Sen. John Cornyn. Concerns exist about significant spending on Paxton due to his scandals. Musk has actively criticized Talarico and contributed at least $158 million to a pro-Paxton super PAC.
Polls Close: 8 p.m. EST, although Mountain Time locations close at 9 p.m. EST.
Outlook: Rated as a “Toss-Up.”
Background: Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2024, with Sen. Ted Cruz winning reelection by 9 points. No Democrat has won a statewide Texas election since 1994.
Michigan Senate Race
Candidates: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, Republican Mike Rogers, Green Party Douglas P. Marsh, Libertarian Lydia Christensen.
Current Status: The Michigan Senate race involves dramatic shifts, including Rep. Haley Stevens endorsing Rogers after losing to El-Sayed. Policy contrasts appear as El-Sayed proposes governmental equity stakes in AI firms and divestment by tech giants. Rogers advocates for halting data center development.
Polls Close: 8 p.m. EST; Central Time Zone counties close at 9 p.m. EST.
Outlook: Rated as “Lean Democrat.”
Background: Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2024, with Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeating Rogers. Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since 1994.
Other Notable Races
Michigan 7th District
Candidates: Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, Democrat William Lawrence, Green Party Shane Dedrick.
Current Status: Barrett seeks reelection with Lawrence opposing him by highlighting Barrett’s ties to proposed data center projects.
Outlook: Rated “Toss-Up.”
Background: Trump narrowly won the district in 2024. Barrett won by under 17,000 votes.
Ohio 9th District
Candidates: Democrat Rep. Marcy Kaptur, Republican Derek Merrin.
Current Status: Republicans need to win Kaptur’s seat to retain majority influence, with data center tax incentives as a major campaign issue.
Outlook: Rated “Lean Democrat.”
Background: In 2024, Trump won by 11 points. Kaptur won by under 2,400 votes.
Pennsylvania 1st District
Candidates: Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, Democrat Bob Harvie.
Current Status: Fitzpatrick confronts opposition focusing on his prior support for an Amazon data center and calls for a data center moratorium.
Polls Close: 8 p.m. EST.
Outlook: Rated “Toss-Up.”
Background: Trump lost the district in 2024, although Fitzpatrick won by nearly 13 points.
Wisconsin 3rd District
Candidates: Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, Democrat Rebecca Cooke.
Current Status: Cooke advocates for a federal data center moratorium, criticizing Van Orden’s alignment with tech interests.
Polls Close: 9 p.m. EST.
Outlook: Rated “Lean Democrat.”
Background: Trump’s 2024 margin was over 7 points, and Van Orden’s victory was within 3 points.
California Billionaire Tax
Ballot Initiative: A 5% tax on wealth over $1 billion. Opponents include Silicon Valley elites.
Current Status: Competing proposals exist, making projections complex. Voting results may take time due to intertwined initiatives.
Polls Close: 11 p.m. EST.
Outlook: UC Berkeley poll shows opponents with a 50% to 42% edge among likely voters.
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