Democrats are projected to gain control of Congress. The Alaska Senate race remains tight, with significant implications for their Senate majority. As of 9:24 p.m. Alaska time, Democrat Mary Peltola was leading Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by a narrow margin of 298 votes. According to unofficial results from the Alaska Division of Elections, Peltola held 48.3 percent with 79,017 votes, while Sullivan had 48.1 percent with 78,719 votes. Republican Gerald L. Heikes accounted for 2 percent, and independent Daniel J. Sullivan had 1.6 percent, with 211 out of 403 precincts reporting.
Major networks like CNN, CBS News, ABC News, and Decision Desk HQ have anticipated a Democratic Senate majority. Before election day, Alaska was expected to be a decisive factor. Now, it influences the final margin.
Why the Alaska Senate Race Holds Significant Weight
The Senate majority’s size determines its legislative power. Alaska remains a crucial seat in this regard. If Peltola wins, she will become the 55th or 56th Democratic senator. A victory for Sullivan narrows the margin, giving Republicans a stronger base for future elections.
Before the election, Forrest Nabors from the University of Alaska Anchorage predicted a possible split outcome. He expressed surprise if Democrats gained a Senate majority but expected Sullivan to retain his seat.
The Implications of a Mary Peltola Victory for Democrats
A Peltola victory would mark the first Democratic Senate seat from Alaska since Democrat Mark Begich lost to Sullivan in 2014. Peltola is a former U.S. representative and would strengthen the Democratic presence in a state that has historically supported Trump.
This victory could also reopen legal challenges. The Justice Department sued, arguing that a Peltola win with fewer votes than the second Sullivan received could alter the result. Although dismissed, the department plans to appeal. Currently, Peltola leads by 298 votes, while the second Sullivan has 2,693 votes.
The Impact of a Dan Sullivan Win for Republicans
A Sullivan win would retain a long-held Republican seat and minimize the Democratic majority’s size. It would likely render the federal lawsuit irrelevant, as the suit focused on a Sullivan loss.
When to Expect Results from the Alaska Senate Race
Final results may take days or weeks. Typically, election night results account for around 70 percent of the total, according to consultant Burke Croft. Over 131 precincts in the state tally ballots by hand. Overseas absentee ballots can arrive up to 15 days post-election day.
Past elections have seen swings as large as four percentage points, noted Croft. The 2008 and 2010 Senate races took approximately two weeks to finalize. Registered Democrats voted earlier than Republicans, with some advance votes counted after election day, according to the Alaska Beacon. Consequently, initial results are likely to appear more Republican than the final tally.
The state will update counts on November 10, November 13, and November 18. If no candidate secures over 50 percent, ranked-choice tabulation will occur on November 18. The last-place candidate will be eliminated, redistributing those ballots to voters’ next choice until a candidate has a majority. The roughly 6,000 votes currently for Heikes and the second Sullivan could be decisive. Officials aim to certify results by November 25.
The Case of Two Dan Sullivans
The ballot features two candidates named Dan Sullivan. Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired schoolteacher from Petersburg, runs as an independent alongside the incumbent Republican senator, Dan S. Sullivan.
In June, the elections director tried to disqualify Daniel J. Sullivan for potentially misleading voters. However, state courts overturned this decision. The New York Times indicated Democratic connections to his candidacy, though Peltola’s campaign denied involvement.
Rejecting allegations of being a decoy, Daniel J. Sullivan asserts independence. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the Justice Department’s suit, stating that setting aside ballots ranking him infringes on Alaskans’ right to a secret ballot.
In ranked-choice counts, votes ranking him first and the senator second would shift to the senator. Those ranking him only will not move.
Polling in the Race Between Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola
An October poll from the New York Times/Siena showed Peltola at 48 percent and Sullivan at 46 percent, within the margin of error. Russell Luke from the University of Alaska Fairbanks described the race as evenly split, with all sources rating it as a toss-up.
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