Spencer Pratt Leads in Campaign Contributions
In the latest campaign finance filings, Los Angeles mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt has emerged as the frontrunner in fundraising. Between April 19 and May 16, Pratt secured approximately $2.72 million. This outpaces all other candidates, with incumbent Mayor Karen Bass raising around $283,000 in the same period. Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman reported contributions of about $400,000, including a $60,000 loan to her own campaign.
Overall, Pratt’s fundraising efforts have brought in a total of $3.26 million by May 16. This narrowly exceeds Bass’s total of $3.13 million, while Raman has accumulated more than $931,000 in total contributions.
Pratt’s Campaign Strategy
Pratt, a reality television personality who entered the mayoral race after his home was lost in the Palisades Fire, has significantly impacted the contest. His campaign leverages viral videos and critiques of Bass’s policies on public safety and homelessness. Early voting is already in progress for the June 2 election.
Despite his strong fundraising, Pratt faces challenges in a city with a strong Democratic leaning. No Republican mayor has been elected in Los Angeles since 1997. Although Pratt is a registered Republican and has received support from President Donald Trump, the race remains challenging.
Current Polls and Insights
Polls and prediction markets indicate that Bass remains the leading candidate. However, she may not have a sufficient lead to avoid a runoff. Pratt and Raman are in a close contest for second place.
An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey shows Bass with 30 percent support, up from 20 percent in March. Pratt has moved to 22 percent support, rising from 10 percent in March, while Raman is at 19 percent. The number of undecided voters dropped dramatically from 51 percent in March to 16 percent in May. This poll surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters between May 9 and 10 with a margin of error of 3 percent.
Another poll by Tavern Research shows a tighter race. Bass leads with 22 percent support, Pratt follows with 18 percent, and Raman with 16 percent. Initial undecided voters were at 46 percent, which decreased to 29 percent after follow-up. This poll took place with 531 likely voters from May 1 to 4 and had a margin of error of 6.1 percent.
Prediction Markets Indicate Bass as a Favorite
Prediction markets provide a dynamic view, often aggregating information swiftly. However, they are also prone to biases and speculative fluctuations.
Recent trends show Bass’s odds increasing, while Pratt and Raman have seen a decrease. By early Monday, Bass’s odds were at 71 percent, a rise from 56 percent previously. Pratt’s odds fell slightly to 22 percent from 24 percent, while Raman’s odds decreased to about 10 percent from 16 percent. The Kalshi exchange reflected similar figures, with Bass at 67 percent, Pratt at 27 percent, and Raman at about 7 percent.
Upcoming Election Details
The primary election is set for June 2. In the absence of a candidate winning a majority, the top two candidates will participate in a runoff scheduled for November 3.
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