Republican Congressman Byron Donalds is currently behind Democratic candidate David Jolly in the race for Florida’s governorship, as per a new poll by Change Research. This development may offer hope to Florida Democrats, who have not seen victory in a statewide election since 2018. The state’s political landscape has shifted towards Republicans in recent elections.
Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican restricted by term limits, cannot pursue another term in 2026. He secured a second term by a margin of nearly 20 percentage points in 2022. Meanwhile, Republicans have strengthened their voter registration edge and held onto every statewide elected position. Despite these trends, recent polling indicates a potentially competitive race to find DeSantis’ successor.
Donald Trump has reiterated his backing for Donalds, stating, “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” He added, “Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement. HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!” Trump secured Florida by 13 points in the 2024 race against Kamala Harris, and no Democrat has won the governorship in over two decades.
When asked for a comment on the recent poll, Donalds’ campaign referred to Gates McGavick’s post on social media. McGavick humorously remarked, “I hear Change Research also sells tremendous ocean front property in Arizona.” Additionally, Ryan Smith, affiliated with the campaign, posted, “This is a push poll by Democrats for Democrats. The truth is, Florida Democrats will be crying in their kombucha on November 3 when @ByronDonalds is elected governor.”
Key Details
The Change Research poll positions Jolly ahead of Donalds in a hypothetical general-election scenario. Jolly, once a Republican congressman, switched parties to the Democrats. His campaign highlights affordability issues, including insurance, housing, and healthcare costs. Donalds is positioning himself as a conservative successor to uphold Trump’s policies and tackle illegal immigration.
In specific terms, Jolly leads by 47% to Donalds’ 42%, with a slightly higher advantage among likely voters at 49% compared to 43%. The poll surveyed 1,273 registered voters, of whom 1,015 indicated they are likely to vote in the 2026 midterm election. The poll features a margin of error of 2.8%.
The survey also shows Jolly securing 94% support from Democrats, while Donalds commands 77% backing from Republicans.
Additional Polling Insights
Another poll from Change Research reveals Jolly leading Donalds 46% to 42%. Conducted from May 13 to May 16, it surveyed 2,070 registered voters, with 1,593 likely voters. This poll’s margin of error is 2.3%.
A poll by Emerson College Polling at March’s end indicated Donalds having 44% support compared to Jolly’s 39%, with 17% of voters undecided. This poll, conducted among 1,125 likely voters from March 29 to March 31, carries a margin of error of 2.8%.
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