NOAA’s Forecast Predicts Warm Summer and Potential Weather Challenges

The latest three-month forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, released on June 18, indicates a high likelihood of above-normal temperatures for a large portion of the United States. Summer begins officially on June 21, bringing expected heat along with it. The forecast highlights Oregon and Washington as having the highest probability of encountering temperatures above the historical average during July, August, and September.

In contrast, Illinois, and parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Missouri stand out as exceptions. These areas are the only ones in NOAA’s forecast with an approximately 30% probability of experiencing below the historical average temperatures. The historical data used for comparison spans from 1991 to 2020. Scott Handel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, noted, “What we’re seeing for the July, August, September time period is that for the majority of the country, the trend has been warmer.”

Summer 2026: Fire and Drought Risks

Precipitation patterns for the upcoming three months are largely expected to align with historical averages throughout most of the U.S. However, areas such as Southern California, Utah, Arizona, and parts of Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico may experience above-average rainfall. This increased rainfall would benefit regions suffering from drought and prone to wildfires.

Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, attributes the predicted rainfall to a mix of monsoon moisture and one or two east Pacific tropical storms. Long-range forecasts from AccuWeather indicate a heightened fire risk in the Northwest during the fall, as this area is predicted to be warmer and drier than usual.

The Rockies’ northern regions are expected to experience intensifying drought conditions. Merrill warned of the potential for dry thunderstorms to ignite wildfires in the Southwest at the onset of the monsoon season. However, an increase in moisture from late July into August might lead to rapid shifts from wildfire risks to flooding concerns.

“The southwest can see a big target with the summer going from very dry, very hot, with a wildfire risk to all of a sudden having episodes of flooding,” Merrill stated. He also highlighted an increased flooding risk extending from northern Texas into the Midwest.