The black campaign bus emblazoned with “Talarico for Texas” parked at Memo’s Restaurant, close to the U.S.-Mexico border. Bibi Valdez eagerly approached, her phone camera ready, as she discussed the shift in political tides among Hispanics over the past two years. “A lot of people, especially Hispanics, shifted to Republican,” she remarked, as guards prepared space for James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate. “I just don’t see what the logic was.”
Talarico is striving to become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas since 1994. Memo’s Restaurant was among numerous stops along the border this month as he sought backing from predominantly Hispanic areas that captured national attention after the 2024 election. These areas, once predictable Democratic strongholds, showed support for Republican President Donald Trump in significant numbers during the last elections.
Residents and local leaders identify two driving forces behind this shift: rising border crossings and inflation. A pronounced drop occurred in border crossings since 2024, unlike the persistent cost of living increases. While Trump reduced illegal crossings, Talarico targets living costs in his campaign, challenging incumbent Republican Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general.
Talarico’s success in persuading Hispanic voters who previously switched to the GOP could define the Senate race outcome and the potential Democratic control of the Senate.
Talarico, a former middle school teacher and state legislator, actively engaged with people at Memo’s Restaurant, filled with individuals eager to meet him. Valdez, while waiting, pondered why acquaintances voted Republican. “They believed in a better economy, but clearly it didn’t manifest,” she noted, before taking a photo with Talarico.
Inside the crowded restaurant, beneath whirring fans, Talarico addressed the gathering. “Many politicians visit the border to use it as a weapon,” Talarico declared. “We are doing the opposite. We highlight the beauty of our border communities.” Although he seldom mentioned the border itself during this visit, he instead focused on critiquing an economy favoring what he calls “mega donors” and labeled Paxton “a puppet politician” for the affluent. “We can’t get ahead, no matter the effort, because the system is stacked against us,” Talarico lamented.
Not the first Democrat seeking victory in the traditionally Republican state, Talarico strives to rally support. Previous attempts, like Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign, didn’t succeed. Republicans remain confident, but Democrats see potential. While Trump gained among Hispanic voters in 2024, his standing has dropped, with only 29% of Hispanic adults approving of his presidency according to a June AP-NORC poll, a decrease from 41% at the start of his second term.
In border communities along the Rio Grande, the changing tide of migrants remains tangible and impacts local business and town finances. Little assistance, according to locals, came from President Joe Biden’s administration. “It was a nightmare because of him. Now, you don’t see immigrants,” recounted Hector Flores, 72, at a McDonald’s in Maverick County.
Maverick County experienced a significant shift toward Trump, from a 10-point lead for Biden in 2020 to a 19-point advantage for Trump in 2024. The local men weren’t following the Senate race closely but were affected by issues like high costs and immigration policy. “Under previous presidents, costs were manageable,” said Eduardo “Lalo” Riojas, also in his seventies. Now, “prices are high,” he trailed off.
Flores, who works with orphanages across the border, remains steadfast in his Republican vote despite high prices and critical views of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. His friend Mike Garcia voiced concerns over the deaths of long-standing residents due to ICE operations. Paxton, aware of his controversial reputation, has leveraged immigration in his campaign, challenging Talarico’s earlier comments about God’s gender.
Talarico still discussed immigration enforcement during his tour, standing with local sheriffs in Sanderson, Texas, to advocate for surveillance technology and more border patrol agents. At a town hall, he heard residents’ concerns over housing and healthcare costs. Speaking to the Associated Press, Talarico acknowledged local disillusionment with the Biden administration and highlighted Republicans’ unfulfilled promises.
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