The Old Farmer’s Almanac has provided its long-range weather outlook for August, anticipating thunderstorms across many parts of the United States. There are also potential tropical storm or hurricane threats in several coastal and southern regions. The forecast highlights broad regional patterns without detailing exact daily conditions. The Almanac organizes the U.S. into zones and predicts if temperatures and precipitation will be above or below historical averages.
Forecast Accuracy
The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims a forecast accuracy rate of about 80 percent. It acknowledges that absolute weather prediction accuracy is unobtainable. Their long-range predictions are formed by comparing solar patterns and historical weather data with current solar activity using solar science, climatology, and meteorology.
Regional Weather Overview for August
Northeast
In early August, scattered thunderstorms and warm conditions are predicted, with heavier rain from August 7 to 10. Southern regions may experience isolated showers and cooler weather. Mid-month may bring more thunderstorms, ending with mild temperatures and some thunderstorms from August 19 onward. Expected average temperature is 67.5 degrees, with precipitation around four inches.
Atlantic Corridor
The month will start with thunderstorms, followed by sunshine and warm weather until August 14. A potential tropical storm threatens the south on August 15 and 16. The latter part of the month will be sunny and warm, turning cooler with possible thunderstorms in the south. Precipitation is expected to be two inches, below the historical average by two inches.
Appalachians
From August 1 to 12, warm conditions with isolated thunderstorms are anticipated. Sunny weather should prevail from August 13 to 20 as temperatures rise. Scattered thunderstorms could return at the month’s end, with mild conditions overall. The temperature is expected to be 71 degrees, one degree below average, with about 2.5 inches of precipitation.
Southeast
August may begin with scattered thunderstorms, transitioning from warm to cool by August 11. Between August 12 and 14, isolated thunderstorms could occur in the west, while the east might face a hurricane threat. Showers and cooler weather are expected until August 23. Thunderstorms are anticipated in the west as sunshine develops in the east, with mild conditions ending the month.
Florida
Florida should start with isolated thunderstorms and warm temperatures until August 9, followed by a hurricane threat from August 10 to 12. Thunderstorms and mild weather are likely until August 24. The north might see sunshine at the month’s end, with thunderstorms persisting in the south. August precipitation is forecast at eight inches, with the north two inches below average and the south two inches above.
Lower Great Lakes
The region begins with scattered thunderstorms, turning sunny as temperatures cool by August 16. More thunderstorms are expected between August 17 and 25, with cool conditions becoming warmer. Heavy rain could affect the east from August 26 to 28 while the west stays sunny. The month ends with scattered thunderstorms and mild conditions.
Ohio Valley
The month begins sunny before thunderstorms appear, with warm conditions through August 9. A sunny, mild spell should occur from August 10 to 19, followed by scattered thunderstorms from August 20 to 28. The month is expected to end sunny and mild, with an average temperature of 72.5 degrees, 1.5 degrees below normal, and precipitation about one inch below average.
Deep South
August starts with scattered thunderstorms, followed by cooler weather through August 13. Northern areas may see sunshine from August 14 to 21, with thunderstorms affecting the south. From August 22 to 24, scattered thunderstorms could occur in the east, while a tropical storm threat exists in the west. Sunshine should close the month.
Upper Midwest
This region starts with isolated thunderstorms and warm weather. A sunny, warm spell is expected from August 8 to 12. From August 13 to 18, the east should remain sunny while the west experiences isolated thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms might return from August 19 to 24 before the month ends with showers and cooler conditions.
Heartland
Scattered thunderstorms and building heat are expected in early August. Sunny and warm weather should prevail until August 15, with a few thunderstorms during a warm period from August 16 to 20. Later in the month, isolated thunderstorms are anticipated. The forecast predicts an August temperature of 73 degrees, two degrees below average, and 4.5 inches of precipitation.
Texas-Oklahoma
August opens with sunshine before a few thunderstorms develop. Warm conditions are expected in the north and hot weather in the south. Heavy thunderstorms could occur from August 10 to 12, followed by sunshine and isolated thunderstorms through August 22. A tropical storm threat exists from August 23 to 25, with a few thunderstorms continuing.
High Plains
The northern High Plains may start sunny and hot, while thunderstorms and cooler conditions are expected in the south. A brief period of thunderstorms and cool weather is predicted from August 6 to 10, followed by sunshine. Isolated thunderstorms may develop from August 11 to 19, with scattered thunderstorms and hot conditions ending the month.
Intermountain Region
August could begin warm and sunny in the north and with a few thunderstorms in the south. From August 12 to 15, sunny, warm conditions may persist. The north should remain sunny from August 16 to 22, while the south experiences isolated thunderstorms and heat. Warm weather and isolated thunderstorms might continue through the end of the month.
Desert Southwest
Scattered thunderstorms and warm conditions could start August. Thunderstorms might affect the east from August 6 to 11, with sunny weather in the west. A sunny stretch is forecast from August 12 to 23, before isolated thunderstorms return from August 24 to 31.
Pacific Northwest
The month may begin sunny and hot, transitioning to isolated thunderstorms, followed by sunshine and warmth from August 6 to 21. Scattered showers with cooler temperatures are expected from August 22 to 25. The region should end the month sunny and hot.
Pacific Southwest
Primarily sunny conditions are expected throughout August. Inland areas may experience heat while coastal regions stay warm. From August 10 to 17, isolated sprinkles could occur in the north, with sunny weather continuing in the south. Sunny, hot conditions should persist from August 18 to 21, with an anticipated end of hot inland conditions and cooler coasts.
Alaska
The month starts with showers and cool conditions in the north and central areas, while the south sees rain. From August 16 to 21, the Panhandle might experience rain, and isolated showers could occur in the east and west. North Alaska may see rain and snow showers, while the central region stays sunny and warm. Rain is likely in the southern areas from August 22 to 31.
Hawaii
August in Hawaii may start with scattered showers in the east and west, while the central areas remain sunny and hot until August 16. More showers are predicted from August 17 to 31, with fewer in central and western regions. Temperatures should stay warm with expected precipitation of 0.2 inches, 0.4 inches below normal, and an average temperature of 80.5 degrees, one degree below average.
If you wish to discuss this report, please contact Matthew Robinson and Dave Siminoff of Newsweek.
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