Trump’s Approval Ratings and Midterm Challenges
As the November 3 midterm elections approach, recent polling data highlights a challenging period for President Donald Trump. The political landscape is more difficult than when he returned to office. State-by-state data places Trump in negative territory in every swing state, indicating that even minor shifts in voter sentiment could influence congressional control in November.
The data comes from Civiqs’ survey of 120,580 registered voters. A Newsweek analysis compares Trump’s approval rating on July 30, 2026, with January 20, 2025, marking the first day of his second term. It measures net approval as the percentage approving minus those disapproving.
The White House cites Trump’s 2024 election win as a strong indicator of public support, suggesting voters endorsed the administration’s agenda.
National Approval Context
Trump’s national approval rating is 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproval, leading to a net approval rating of -23. The state-level picture shows a similar trend: strongest in Republican areas, weakest in Democratic strongholds, and underwater in crucial battleground states.
States that began Trump’s second term with positive approval ratings are now negative. Notably, Republican-leaning states have shown significant declines.
Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates are among Trump’s least supportive groups.
Impact of Approval Ratings
Brett Loyd, cofounder of the Independent Center, notes Trump’s struggles among moderate voters could challenge Republican candidates. He cautions Democrats not to assume disapproval of Trump will translate into support for them.
Loyd states that being underwater in key battlegrounds prevents GOP incumbents from relying on Trump to boost their chances, warning against complacency for Democrats.
Comparative Analysis with Previous Midterms
Before the 2022 midterms, Joe Biden’s approval was also 36 percent with 55 percent disapproval, resulting in a -19 net rating. Trump’s current numbers are somewhat weaker.
However, Trump’s current standing is notably worse than before the 2018 midterms. Prior to those elections, he had a 43 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval, a net rating of -10. Now, his net rating of -23 shows a 13-point decline nationally.
Demographic Data Insights
National demographic trends elucidate state-level patterns. Trump has low support among younger voters, with only 22 percent approval among those aged 18 to 34, and 72 percent disapproval. For voters aged 35 to 49, approval is 29 percent while disapproval is 63 percent.
Independents show 28 percent approval and 64 percent disapproval. Women disapprove 65 to 30, while men are divided 53 disapprove to 42 percent approve.
Education creates another divide. Among postgraduates, 24 percent approve and 72 percent disapprove. For non-college graduates, the gap narrows to 39 percent approve and 55 percent disapprove.
Strong Approval in Republican Heartland
Trump’s best numbers are in Republican strongholds. Wyoming and North Dakota show net approval ratings of +19. West Virginia follows with +15, Alabama and Idaho at +13, South Dakota at +7, and Oklahoma at +8.
Despite strong numbers, these states have seen declines since Trump’s second term began. For instance, Wyoming dropped from +47 to +19.
Swing States Indicate Challenges
Swing states remain a major hurdle, with Trump underwater in all key areas:
- Arizona: -11
- Georgia: -22
- Nevada: -21
- North Carolina: -15
- Pennsylvania: -18
- Wisconsin: -16
- Florida: -12
- Ohio: -13
Many of these states were either positive or balanced when Trump took office. Changes indicate consistent negative trends in crucial states.
Declines Across Key States
All states in the tracker show lower net approval since January 20, 2025. Notable declines include:
- Kentucky: +23 to -5
- Wyoming: +47 to +19
- Oklahoma: +31 to +8
- Florida: +9 to -12
- Nevada: 0 to -21
- Idaho: +34 to +13
- Iowa: +6 to -14
- Tennessee: +25 to +5
- Ohio: +8 to -13
- West Virginia: +35 to +15
Loyd believes declines result from red-state residents who expected stability and lower costs, not increased political turmoil.
Firm Opposition in Democratic States
Trump’s weakest ratings are in Democratic states. Hawaii shows the lowest net approval at -60, followed by Vermont at -55, Maryland at -52, Massachusetts at -46, and California at -44.
Little movement is observed as Trump started his second term deeply underwater in these states.
Middle-Map States Show Tight Competition
Several states hover near the balance line. Indiana is +2, Nebraska -3, Louisiana -4, Mississippi -1, and Missouri -7. The overall partisan geography remains similar, but margins have narrowed.
White House Response
White House spokesman Davis Ingle highlights progress on jobs, inflation, and housing. Ingle argues Trump has done more for Americans than any other president, stating the administration views this as a starting point.
Future Outlook
Loyd advises against relying solely on approval ratings. He suggests evaluating them alongside other political indicators.
He compares the current environment to 2018, before Republicans lost the House, though he notes post-2020 redistricting may favor current GOP incumbents to some extent.
Leave a Reply