President Donald Trump’s approval among white voters improved significantly in a recent Marquette Law School poll, reversing a prior deficit recorded just weeks earlier. Conducted between July 22 and 27 with 639 white respondents, the poll revealed 51% of white voters approved of Trump’s job as president, while 49% disapproved, giving him a net approval rating of +2. This marked a dramatic shift from the pollster’s June findings showing a net approval rating of -12 among white voters. That poll, conducted between June 9 and 15 with 903 white respondents, found 44% approved of Trump’s performance, while 56% disapproved.
Recent polls had highlighted a decline in Trump’s support among white voters, with concerns about economic issues, inflation, and tensions with Iran. In this context, the latest reversion in Trump’s approval stands out.
Importance of White Voter Support
White voters form a significant portion of the U.S. electorate and have been integral to Trump’s political success for over a decade. An erosion of support in this demographic could pose challenges for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections.
The president’s party usually loses seats during midterms. With congressional control in play in November, even minor changes in voter support could have substantial effects. Dissatisfaction with Trump’s policies might lead white voters to either support Democrats or abstain from voting, which could hinder Republicans’ efforts to maintain control of Congress during Trump’s second term.
Other Polls Indicate Declining Support
A CNN poll released in July showed Trump’s net approval rating among white voters at -20, a historic low for his presidency. Conducted by SSRS from July 23 to 27 with a national sample of 1,225 adults, CNN’s polling has tracked a steady decline in Trump’s approval among white voters over the past year, recording ups and downs but reaching a low point in July.
The polls indicate an erosion of support within the Republican base as well. Only 78% of Republicans approved of Trump, the lowest in his tenure, with just 19% expressing enthusiasm for his future term. Economist/YouGov polls support these findings, showing a decline in support among white voters, including those without college degrees—a core part of Trump’s base.
The latest Economist/YouGov poll conducted from July 25 to 27 revealed a net approval rating of -14 among white voters and -6 among non-college-educated white voters, marking a decline from previous ratings.
Polling Expert’s Perspective
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, advises caution in interpreting Marquette Law School’s latest poll results. He notes that most polls suggest Trump’s approval among white voters dropped to historic lows due to economic concerns and international issues. Panagopoulos indicates the recent poll could be an outlier due to sampling variation and differing methodologies. This assessment emphasizes the necessity of considering factors like sample characteristics and question wording when analyzing poll results.
White House Response
The White House consistently downplays Trump’s low approval ratings, citing his 2024 electoral victory as evidence of public support. In response to poll inquiries, White House spokesman Davis Ingle emphasized Trump’s mandate to implement his agenda. Ingle stated that no other president has achieved more for Americans, citing efforts to create jobs, curb inflation, and enhance housing affordability. He remarked on Trump’s historic progress both domestically and internationally.
Future Implications
White voters have been pivotal to Trump’s coalition since the 2016 election, consistently rating him more favorably than the general population. Regardless, declining approval ratings in this group, coupled with existing lows in overall support, may impact the upcoming midterm elections. Improving or worsening support from this critical bloc could have significant implications as the elections approach.
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