The Strait of Hormuz, according to some interpretations, derives its name from a Zoroastrian deity prophesied to prevail after a 9,000-year pause against an adversary. Iran’s leadership believes their triumph is imminent. They are placing their bets on military pressure to compel the United States to accept Iranian dominance over this vital global energy route, asserting that time favors them.
Iran understands the dwindling reserves of key U.S. weaponry like advanced missile interceptors. They recognize the war’s lack of popularity with the American public. They know that as long as the strait remains largely impassable, the cost of gasoline and other goods in the U.S. will remain high, influencing the outcome of the congressional elections in November. They are aware that forcibly reopening the strait would demand substantial resources, potentially engaging American ground forces. They rely on their Houthi allies in Yemen to widen the conflict and disrupt another crucial trade route. Based on these calculations, U.S. President Donald Trump may have no alternative but to yield.
However, Iran’s strategy entails significant risks. President Trump highlights devastating strikes on Iran’s high-ranking officials, navy, and air force. He alternates between threats of escalation and claims of productive negotiations. Iran’s economy is also under strain due to a U.S. blockade. Recent mass protests across Iran could resurface. Iran’s leaders only need to consider how Trump’s brief ‘Middle East excursion’ has become prolonged to see that wars seldom progress as anticipated.
Iran is reportedly nearing a deal with Oman to manage the strait, contingent upon the U.S. lifting its blockade. Although direct negotiations might not occur—as Iran claims—Trump’s approval is essential. It’s uncertain if the arrangement would permit Iran to charge fees, but it would formalize Iranian control over what was once an international waterway, carrying a fifth of the world’s oil and gas.
“More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait,” remarked analyst Abdolreza Davari.
This formal control represents a victory for Iran and a setback for the U.S., which has not yet achieved its various objectives in the conflict. It could challenge global norms regarding freedom of navigation and set a worrisome precedent that countries can blockade trade chokepoints at will. China, a significant oil buyer from Iran, has expressed the need for restored ‘normal and safe passage’ through the strait.
Iran holds to its belief that they have time on their side. According to advisor Mahdi Mohammadi, the decision to end the conflict rests with Iran. Despite a surprise attack on Jordan, which temporarily stabilized oil prices, Iran is clear that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen as an unregulated waterway.
The strait serves as a strategic tool for Iran to balance regional power and influence Persian Gulf security dynamics. The nuclear issue has taken a backseat amid the strait conflict, an advantageous position for Iran. Still, Iran’s gamble remains risky. The economic effects of the war are staggering within the nation. U.S. and Israeli impacts have damaged its industrial capacity, and a U.S. blockade has sharply reduced oil exports. Triple-digit food inflation burdens Iranians, and Trump’s threats of major civilian infrastructure strikes remain constant.
A currency crisis in December led to some of the most significant anti-government protests in the Islamic Republic’s history, with authorities responding violently. Concerns linger among moderates like President Masoud Pezeshkian that Iran could overstep. Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned that without a timely agreement, economic recovery would be challenging, risking domestic turmoil or renewed hostility post-U.S. elections.
Surprises have dominated the conflict. After February airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel eliminated Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials, Trump predicted swift conflict resolution. Instead, it has strengthened Iranian resolve and galvanized their supporters. Yet, the strategy risks negative consequences. Economic collapse could incite unrest.
“Iran cannot continue with this strategy indefinitely. A point will come in reality where a deal with America must be reached,” stated analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour.
However, analyst Davari believes Iran can still withstand the pressure. Despite economic challenges, retreat from established positions seems unlikely at present.
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