Fox News’ latest midterm forecast shows Democrats with improved chances of retaking the House of Representatives. With less than two months until Election Day, the Democrats hold a narrow advantage in the battle for control. The updated Fox News Power Rankings favor Democrats in 212 districts, compared to 206 for Republicans. Seventeen races remain toss-ups, crucial for determining the House’s control.
Historically, the president’s party loses seats during midterms. Democrats gained 41 seats in 2018 during Donald Trump’s first term. Currently, Republicans have a slim majority in both the House and Senate. The pivotal contests will likely be decided by a small number of competitive districts. A party needs 218 seats to control the House.
Candidates have intensified campaigns and fundraising efforts as the election approaches. Trump is actively supporting Republicans in key battlegrounds, declaring on Truth Social that Democrats are attempting to ruin America. He announced intentions to win the midterms and save the nation.
The race for the Senate remains tight, with Democrats in a 53-47 minority facing a difficult map. Several toss-up races will play a critical role in determining Senate control. Key contests in both chambers will test the political climate under Trump’s second term, amidst declining approval ratings stemming from economic concerns, tariff policies, and ongoing conflict with Iran.
“Every fight is on Republican turf—a real indicator of headwinds impacting the party in power,” said Matt Klink, owner and president of Klink Campaigns.
In recent updates, Fox News shifted Ohio’s 7th District from the likely Republican column to toss-up. The race involves Republican Congressman Max Miller, facing domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife, Emily Moreno. Despite calls to resign, Miller remains in the race against Democrat Brian Poindexter. The district previously supported Trump by 11 points in 2024. Klink noted this indicates a candidate problem, emphasizing headlines rather than voter shifts.
Other Ohio districts, the 10th and 15th, were also downgraded in Fox News rankings, indicating a competitive environment for Republicans. Meanwhile, the Missouri Supreme Court restored existing boundaries for the 5th District, returning it to the Democratic column.
Trump’s approval rating, closely watched during the midterms, stands at -24. Voter perspectives on the economy, central to Trump’s 2024 campaign, pose challenges for Republicans. A Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates marginally higher trust in Democrats to manage the economy compared to Republicans.
Despite these challenges, GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson remains confident, asserting Republicans will maintain and grow their majority. Cook Political Report’s forecast supports a tight race, with Democrats favored in 205 seats and Republicans in 209, and 21 races as toss-ups.
Democrats show a lead in various polls regarding control of the House. Real Clear Polling gives Democrats a 48% chance of securing the chamber versus 42.3% for Republicans. Additional polls, like YouGov/Economist and Quantus Insights, reflect voter preferences favoring Democrats. Prediction markets further bolster Democratic prospects, showing strong chances of controlling the House.
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