A report from the University of Illinois Chicago highlights the significant economic impact of immigration crackdowns on Chicago’s commerce. The study estimates that $1.26 billion disappeared from local businesses in Chicago due to widespread fear and isolation following immigration crackdowns that began in early 2025.
Using anonymous cellphone GPS data, researchers tracked movement in immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods across Cook County. The study found that after President Donald Trump assumed office on January 20, 2025, the routine interactions between these areas crumbled quickly. The collapse was prompted by rampant rumors and the subsequent Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids targeting Chicago.
Professor Matt Wilson, co-author of the report, explained that the economic impact was felt beyond immigrant communities. According to the report, decreased consumer mobility led to a reduction in retail and restaurant visits, costing non-immigrant neighborhoods approximately $1.26 billion and resulting in $107 million in lost tax revenue for Illinois.
“We see a 9% drop in retail and a 10% drop in restaurant visits, and it persisted for about a year,” Wilson reported. “People’s behavior systematically changed after January 20, 2025, and the city has yet to recover.”
For small businesses, a constant 10% decline in foot traffic over a year is financially damaging. The study questions beliefs surrounding community isolation within immigrant neighborhoods. Wilson notes these communities are integrated into the broader economy, frequently visiting different parts of the county.
Fear was apparent in immigrant communities around the 2025 inauguration. A waitress named Caridad expressed hesitation about going grocery shopping due to potential ICE presence, reflecting the pervasive panic.
Since then, nationwide immigration crackdowns have led to hundreds of thousands of arrests. The current immigration detention population stands at a record 65,000.
The White House has defended the enforcement strategy. Spokeswoman Lauren Bis claimed that removing criminals enhances community safety. However, ICE statistics reveal that 70% of detained individuals lack criminal convictions.
The report aligns with other research highlighting the economic disruptions caused by large-scale immigration enforcement. A Brookings Institution report noted a 1.7 percentage point drop in consumer spending in states with high enforcement.
In Minneapolis, ICE sweeps resulted in an estimated $700 million in economic damage, with small businesses losing over $81 million in January.
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