Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has garnered more support from 2024 Donald Trump voters than his Republican counterpart, Ken Paxton, has from Kamala Harris voters. This information comes from a recent Big Data Poll survey. As Democrats aim to regain control of the Senate and the House, flipping a Senate seat in Texas, a typically Republican state, could significantly hinder President Trump’s agenda in his presumed second term.
Polling Insights
The Big Data Poll surveyed 698 likely voters in Texas between September 24 and 26. Results showed that Talarico, currently a Texas State Representative, is leading Paxton with 44.6% of the vote over Paxton’s 41.6%. Notably, 15% of Trump’s 2024 voters support Talarico, whereas only 4.3% of Harris’s voters back Paxton. The margin of error is four percentage points.
During the 2024 election, Trump won Texas by 13.7 percentage points, securing 56.2% of the votes versus Harris’s 42.5%.
SoCal Strategies Survey
Corroborating Big Data’s findings, a SoCal Strategies poll of 649 likely voters, conducted on September 12-13, revealed that Talarico has the support of 95% of Harris voters and 14% of Trump voters. Paxton received 84% backing from Trump voters and just 4% from Harris voters. The poll indicated that Paxton performed worse with Harris voters compared to Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
Overall, the SoCal Strategies poll gave Talarico a five-point lead, with Talarico receiving 50% and Paxton 45%. It showed Abbott leading Gina Hinojosa, his Democratic challenger, by 52% to 44%.
Additional Polling
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey published on Friday showed Talarico with a five-point lead over Paxton, holding 49% of the vote against Paxton’s 44% among 1,007 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.6%.
A Texas Southern University poll conducted in late July among 1,200 likely voters provided a narrower lead for Talarico, at 47% to 45%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi show increasing confidence in Talarico’s chances. Polymarket estimates Talarico’s odds of winning at 61% versus Paxton’s 40%. Kalshi projects 59% for Talarico versus 41% for Paxton. On July 28, Paxton had higher chances according to these markets.
Candidate Controversies
Paxton, endorsed by Trump, remains a controversial figure even among Texas Republicans. After defeating Senator John Cornyn, who criticized him as a “known con man and fraud,” Paxton faced challenges within his party. Cornyn has avoided campaigning for Paxton in the Senate race.
In 2023, the Texas House impeached Paxton over allegations of misconduct, but he was acquitted by the state Senate.
Talarico has also faced criticism for statements about his faith. In 2021, he made comments suggesting that “God is nonbinary” and described himself as a Christian who is critical of Christianity, which has sparked debates.
Recently, Talarico proposed a televised debate with Paxton at the Texas Tribune Festival. However, despite assurances from Paxton’s campaign advisor, no date has been set.
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