President Donald Trump is set to rally in Kansas on Sunday to support Republican Senator Roger Marshall. The Senate race has shifted from a reliable Republican win to a ‘Toss Up’, according to Fox News. The event will take place in Salina, just days before Election Day, with Marshall facing Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor. Trump’s speech at Salina Regional Airport is scheduled for 6 p.m. local time, with doors opening at 2:30 p.m.
This visit gains importance as Fox News recently adjusted its ratings, moving Kansas from ‘Lean Republican’ to ‘Toss Up’. The network cited the significant resources Republicans are diverting to the state. ‘Kansas is a conservative stronghold, but Republicans are spending too much time and money relative to other states to conclude that Sen. Roger Marshall has an edge over Democrat Adam Hamilton,’ the Fox News Sunday Power Rankings noted.
The Cook Political Report also reclassified Kansas’ race as a ‘Toss Up’ on October 6. Trump, intensifying his support for Marshall, described the senator in a Truth Social post as ‘one of the Best Senators in the United States of America’. In national terms, Trump stated Marshall was crucial in preventing ‘Communists’ from controlling the Senate. He criticized Hamilton as a ‘Radical Left Phony’ and praised Marshall’s positions. Concluding his message, Trump affirmed a ‘Complete and Total Endorsement’ of Marshall, urging voters to support him.
Trump’s visit follows polls showing Hamilton ahead, despite Trump’s previous success in Kansas by a wide margin in 2024. It is Trump’s second Kansas appearance for Marshall in weeks, having campaigned near Wichita on October 19. The visit underwent changes, originally canceled in favor of tele-rallies, before being rescheduled for Sunday. Hamilton welcomed Trump’s presence, urging him to meet Kansans affected by federal policies.
On social media, Trump encouraged Republican turnout in Kansas, reminding supporters to vote early until November 2.
SO IMPORTANT — PLEASE GET OUT AND VOTE. MAGA!
Recent Polls
Recent polls show a shift toward Hamilton. An Emerson College Polling survey (October 26-28) had Hamilton at 49%, with Marshall at 45%, and Libertarian David Graham at 3%. The credibility interval was ±3.5 percentage points. When undecided voters were asked further, Hamilton’s lead extended.
A CNN/SSRS survey (October 20-26) found Hamilton leading 49% to 45%, within its ±4.5 percentage points margin. The Washington Post/Schar School survey showed Hamilton at 52% and Marshall at 43%, with Graham at 4%. Some caution was noted about response rates skewed toward Democrats.
An earlier InsiderAdvantage poll (October 13-14) showed Marshall leading by 1%, 48% to 47%, with a ±2.8 percentage points margin.
Fox News highlighted that about 10% of voters in Kansas and other states remain undecided, leaving their final decisions uncertain.
The Significance of Kansas
Kansas has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since the 1930s. A Democratic win would mark a significant shift. Nonetheless, Democrats have recently shown they can appeal to statewide voters. Laura Kelly secured the governorship in 2018 and 2022, and Representative Sharice Davids has had victories in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District.
The Marshall-Hamilton race is crucial in the national context. Fox News currently gives Democrats 48 Senate seats and Republicans 45, making Kansas one of seven battlegrounds likely to decide the Senate majority. Democrats face a challenging path, needing victories in several Trump-led states to secure control.
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