College basketball season has returned, coinciding with the excitement surrounding ‘CBB With Danny Z.’ While some eagerly await it, others might barely recognize college basketball until later in the season.
Last season, we conducted a series comparing the preseason AP Top 25 rankings with KenPom’s analytics, evaluating differences over time. Affiliations may exist with legal sports betting partners, and FOX News might receive compensation for bets placed through certain links.
Preseason Rankings: A Retrospective
Last year, KenPom ranked Vanderbilt 19th in the preseason, contrasting with the AP’s 36th ranking. Vanderbilt eventually finished 27-9, illustrating KenPom’s foresight. However, KenPom had Baylor at 17th, but Baylor ended 17-17, missing the tournament.
St. John’s serves as a reminder to withhold early judgments. Initially ranked 5th by the AP and 16th by KenPom, they ended at 30-7, reaching the Sweet 16. The voters’ early optimism wasn’t unfounded.
Creighton, ranked 23rd by the AP and 41st by KenPom, finished 16-18, missing the NCAA Tournament. This discrepancy highlights the importance of tracking these differences.
Ranking Comparisons: Expanding the Analysis
This season expands the comparisons. With TeamRankings’ ratings and the Coaches Poll now included, we assess the agreement between human voters and analytics models.
Kansas and Iowa State: Analytics Favorability
The computers show optimism for Kansas, ranking them 5th in KenPom and 6th in TeamRankings, contrary to the AP and Coaches Poll where they rank 17th and 18th.
Iowa State, a strong team last season, ranks 6th in KenPom. The AP places them at 18th, while TeamRankings positions them at 11th. The difference emphasizes KenPom’s faith in the Cyclones’ defense.
Alabama receives higher predictions from KenPom at 9th and TeamRankings at 16th, relative to its 20th rank in the human polls. Their offensive potential supports KenPom’s forecast.
Houston finishes strongly in KenPom at 3rd. Both human polls rank them lower, at 10th and 8th.
Tennessee and USC: Human Poll Preferences
USC ranks 21st and 22nd in human polls but doesn’t break KenPom’s top 35, sitting at 37th. Tennessee appears 8th and 9th in the human polls, yet KenPom places them at 22nd.
Arkansas ranks 12th and 13th in human polls, but analytics rank them lower. Their performance in the Sweet 16 the prior year may influence these standings.
Nebraska: A Rising Presence
Nebraska starts on firmer footing this year, ranked 15th by KenPom. Human polls place them around 26th. Their past success, including a Sweet 16 appearance, likely boosts their rankings.
Ohio State, unranked by human polls, claims 18th in KenPom. TeamRankings lists them lower at 31st, showing variance among analytics.
Vanderbilt and UConn: Computer Disagreement
Vanderbilt’s 12th rank in KenPom contrasts with the AP’s 24th. TeamRankings aligns with human voters here.
UConn ranks 4th and 5th with human voters, yet KenPom places them at 11th. TeamRankings positions them optimistically at 3rd.
Louisville holds 11th in human polls, compared against KenPom’s 16th ranking.
Conclusion
As the season progresses, continuous comparisons will reveal whether human or analytic predictions better forecast outcomes. Observing one model’s success over another could provide insightful trends.
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