As candidates begin filing petitions for Chicago’s February 23 municipal ballot, Mayor Brandon Johnson encounters significant opposition in his bid for a second term. A recent poll indicates widespread disapproval of his job performance.
The poll surveyed 1,108 adult Chicago residents, including 935 likely voters. Findings reveal that 53% of Chicagoans disapprove of Johnson’s performance, while only 22% express approval. Another 25% hold no opinion. Among likely voters, 55% show little enthusiasm for Johnson’s re-election. Of those who previously supported him, only 25% now consider him their top choice for the 2027 mayoral race.
Conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago and commissioned by the Mansueto Institute for Urban Innovation, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.11% for adults and 4.47% for likely voters.
Johnson, a former organizer for the Chicago Teachers Union and Cook County Board member, defeated former Mayor Lori Lightfoot in February 2023. He narrowly won the April runoff against Paul Vallas by a margin of just over 26,000 votes, capturing 52% to Vallas’s 48%. However, his initial term has been marked by controversy. He clashes with a majority of aldermen, finds displeasure in Springfield, and loses some former allies. Johnson attributes the backlash to corporate interests trying to hinder his pro-working-class agenda.
Despite persistent efforts, Johnson’s approval rating has not exceeded 30% since the second quarter of 2025 when NORC/Mansueto began tracking it. Except for an early 2023 dip to 49%, his disapproval rate remains over 50% consistently. The Northwest Side reports the highest disapproval at 64.5%, while it is lower in his West Side base at 44%, and on the South Side at 49%. Despite 53% disapproval on the Southwest Side, the area gives him his highest approval rate of 25%. Notably, 33% of West Side residents remain indifferent to his performance.
Race plays a significant role in Chicago politics. Johnson, the city’s fourth Black mayor, holds a 24% approval rate among Black residents, with 46.5% disapproval. Among white residents, 61% disapprove, paralleling the 49.5% disapproval among Hispanic residents.
Among likely voters, only 32% find Johnson’s second term candidacy appealing, distributed equally across Black, white, and Hispanic voters. For Johnson’s 2023 supporters, 25% still prefer him as their top mayoral choice.
The poll also evaluated potential mayoral contenders. Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias garners support from about 25% of likely voters, with Johnson following at 14%. Giannoulias appeals to 22% of Johnson’s past voters, as highlighted by his strong TV advertising campaign.
Giannoulias remains widely favored, with 59% of likely voters expressing excitement about his candidacy. State Comptroller Susana Mendoza also receives enthusiastic support from 46% of likely voters. Yet, 34% remain undecided, indicating that perspectives may shift as the campaign proceeds.
Backed by the Chicago Teachers Union, Johnson gains a beneficial ally, offering robust support through effective campaigning and volunteer mobilization efforts.
The weeklong period for candidate petition filing opens at 9 a.m. Monday at the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. A lottery determines initial and final position preferences on the ballot for early and final hour filers. Mayoral candidates must present petitions showcasing at least 12,500 valid registered voter signatures, although more names are often submitted to withstand potential eligibility challenges.
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