Pappas vs. Sununu: A Tight Race
Democratic Representative Chris Pappas faces a challenging contest against former Senator John Sununu in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race, deemed crucial for a Democratic victory in the 2026 midterms. Pappas and Sununu are front-runners expected to secure nominations next week, aiming to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen.
Republicans view the seat as a potential gain, especially with Sununu’s candidacy, given his past tenure from 2003 to 2009. However, Democrats believe Pappas, from a swing district, has strong prospects, bolstered by national dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump.
Recent Polling Results
Recent polls, however, show Sununu with a slight lead. Despite this, forecasters still give Democrats a slight edge in New Hampshire. The polling serves as a warning sign for Democrats working to secure a Senate majority.
Pappas’ campaign manager, Rachel Petri, stated voters recognize the difference between candidates who are engaged and those who are not. She emphasized Pappas’ commitment to engaging with voters directly.
The latest poll from GOP pollster Fabrizio, Lee & Associates revealed a near tie with Sununu at 37% and Pappas at 36%. Other candidates had lower support, and 23% remained undecided. This poll surveyed 600 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
Polling History
Earlier polls showed Pappas leading Sununu by single digits. A Saint Anselm College poll indicated Pappas had a 7-point lead, while a Peak Insights poll showed a slight 1-point advantage for Pappas. UNH polls consistently gave Pappas a lead over Sununu throughout the year.
Upcoming New Hampshire Primary
The primary is set for September 8. Sununu maintains a strong lead against Scott Brown in the GOP primary. Pappas leads against Karishma Manzur, a progressive candidate, showcasing a narrower margin in the latest poll.
Prediction Markets and Their Implications
Prediction markets favor Democratic chances in New Hampshire, standing at 83% on Kalshi and 84% on Polymarket. These markets reflect current trader sentiment based on polling and trends but are not definitive predictions.
Impact of New Hampshire’s Outcome
A GOP victory in New Hampshire would challenge Democrats in securing a Senate majority, as they require four seat pickups due to Republicans’ 53-47 edge. Key states like Georgia and Michigan, where Democrats are defending, add pressure alongside potential GOP holds in Maine and North Carolina.
New Hampshire: A Swing State
At the federal level, New Hampshire remains elusive for Republicans, despite its tendency to elect Republican governors. While backing a Republican president last occurred in 2000, Democrats have excelled in Senate races since 2016.
Democratic success pivots on critical regions and demographics, with independent voters playing a crucial role. As of early August, independents outnumber registered Democrats and Republicans combined, emphasizing their significance in the upcoming election.
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