A Democratic congressman expressed strong disapproval on Thursday of a prediction market that allows users to bet on the number of immigrants the Trump administration will deport within the year. The administration, upon President Donald Trump’s return to office in January 2025, pledged mass deportations, setting various targets such as the removal of 1 million individuals in the first year. Obtaining official deportation data has proven challenging, with supporters urging the government to make good on its promise.
The market on Kalshi offers several deportation totals as potential outcomes, with a 96 percent likelihood of over 400,000 people being removed from the U.S. Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton criticized the market on Kalshi via a post on X, calling the practice “disgusting,” and urged the platform to terminate the bet. Moulton stated, “Kalshi letting users bet on deportation numbers is just as perverse as Polymarket letting people wager on the lives of our troops. I was the first Member of Congress to ban staff from trading on prediction markets because human lives are not casino chips. Kalshi, you claim to be the more ethical platform. Prove it and shut this down now.” Newsweek reached out for comments from Moulton’s office, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and Kalshi on Thursday afternoon.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) appeared to align with the market rather than criticize it. Responding to Newsweek, DHS wrote, “Hammer the over”—a term used in gambling and sports-betting that suggests betting heavily that the final total will surpass current odds. This comment indicated confidence that deportation numbers would exceed current trader expectations.
Seth Moulton’s Record on Immigration
Moulton’s stance on the Kalshi market is consistent with his recent efforts in immigration advocacy. The Democrat has consistently criticized Trump-era immigration enforcement policies and sought further legal protections for migrants facing deportation. In June, he proposed legislation to restore judicial review of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) decisions, arguing that without it, hundreds of thousands of immigrants risk deportation without appropriate court oversight.
His congressional office has similarly issued guidance for immigrants dealing with ICE encounters, covering constitutional rights during enforcement actions and the right to legal counsel. While Moulton hasn’t opposed all immigration enforcement outright, he has often asserted that deportation policies should include due-process protections and judicial review, avoiding excessive executive discretion.
Are Markets Like This Legal?
The legality of markets like Kalshi’s is under scrutiny. As a federally regulated exchange registered with the CFTC, Kalshi argues that its contracts are classified as financial products under federal commodities law, not subject to state gambling laws. The Commodity Exchange Act allows regulated exchanges to list certain event contracts, yet federal regulations enforce more rigorous scrutiny for markets involving sensitive subjects like war, terrorism, and assassination. The CFTC can review and ban contracts it views as counter to public interest.
Determining how prediction markets fit in when discussing elections, government actions, public health events, or politically sensitive issues remains unsettled. Several Democratic lawmakers have urged regulators to more strictly monitor prediction markets and restrict contracts involving government actions, military operations, and matters of public interest.
Understanding Deportations Under Trump
While immigration enforcement has intensified since Trump’s return, available data indicate deportation levels remain beneath the administration’s ambitious goal of 1 million removals annually. Analyzing ICE removal data, experts estimate approximately 400,000 deportations took place during Trump’s first year—an increase from previous years yet still falling short of the White House’s target.
Experts caution that measuring deportations under Trump isn’t simple. Fiscal Year 2025 statistics encompass several months preceding Trump’s inauguration, so annual totals don’t exclusively reflect current administration policies. Researchers also note that ICE removal figures provide only part of the picture, as Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the Border Patrol manage separate removals and returns at the southern border.
Data from Migration Policy Institute analyst Ariel G. Ruiz Soto showed considerable ICE removal increases compared to the previous fiscal year, indicating a focus on interior enforcement. Simultaneously, these figures have sparked debate over whether the government is on track to fulfill Trump’s campaign pledges of mass deportations, making removal totals key indicators of the administration’s immigration agenda. This attention explains the controversy surrounding Kalshi’s deportation market, where deportation stats are seen as a critical measure of Trump’s immigration policy. Critics argue that turning this contentious human and political issue into a speculative investment undermines human worth.
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