The battle for control of Congress is intensifying as Republicans and Democrats approach the elections determining who will have power for the last two years of President Donald Trump’s term. According to the latest Fox News Power Rankings, House Democrats lead Republicans, with projections showing Democrats winning 215 seats compared to the GOP’s 201. However, 19 seats remain toss-ups, leaving the door open for either party to secure the majority.
Republicans find some optimism in the Democratic Party’s shift to the left, driven by successful socialist candidates who may push the party further left than many American voters might prefer, a point GOP candidates highlight.
Fox News Power Rankings: Democrats Lead in the House, but Redistricting Keeps the GOP Competitive
Here is a list of 10 competitive House districts, currently held by Democrats, offering Republicans a chance to gain crucial victories:
- Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District: Representative Shomari Figures, D-Ala., faces re-election in a district redrawn to favor Republicans significantly. A Supreme Court decision in 2023 mandated the creation of a second Black opportunity district in Alabama, aiding Figures’ previous win. However, a later ruling on the Voting Rights Act allowed changes diminishing minority representation, impacting Figures’ district where Trump would have won by 14%.
- Florida’s 9th Congressional District: Rep. Darren Soto, D-Fla., seeks a sixth term in a district redrawn to favor Republicans, where Trump would have won by nearly 18%. Fox News Power Rankings label it as “lean Republican.”
- Florida’s 14th Congressional District: This district, held by Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., now competes strongly due to GOP-favored redrawing. Under new boundaries, Trump would have won by 10.5%, making it a “toss-up” in rankings.
- Florida’s 22nd Congressional District: Following redistricting, both Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., decided to run elsewhere. The seat is open, with Democrat Pia Dandiya against Republican Casey Askar. Rankings deem it “toss-up.”
- Florida’s 25th Congressional District: Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., runs in a district reshaped to favor Republicans. Previously won by Kamala Harris, Trump would gain by 10 points here. Fox News sees it leaning Democrat, while others say “toss-up.”
- Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District: With Rep. Cleo Fields retiring, this race opens up. Redistricting has reduced Democratic influence, favoring Republicans. Rankings predict a Republican win.
- Maine’s 2nd Congressional District: With Rep. Jared Golden retiring, Republicans have an opportunity. In a Trump-winning district, former Gov. Paul LePage is a strong contender. It ranks as “toss-up” or likely Republican by analysts.
- North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District: Rep. Don Davis, facing a tough re-election, is in a district where changes benefit Republicans. Laurie Buckhout challenges his seat, which was narrowly won before. It’s rated “toss-up.”
- Texas’ 35th Congressional District: This open race benefits from new lines where Trump would have a significant lead. The considerable Hispanic vote will heavily influence results, with the district slightly favoring Republicans.
- Ohio’s 9th Congressional District: Long-serving Rep. Marcy Kaptur battles in an area now more Republican-leaning. Redistricting poses challenges, yet she has survived such shifts before. The district is a “toss-up.”
This report includes contributions from Fox News’ Remy Numa. Elizabeth Elkind, a politics reporter for Fox News Digital, focuses on House coverage. Follow her on Twitter or send tips to [email protected].
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