A recent Fox News poll gives Texas Democrats hope in a closely watched Senate contest, with Democratic State Representative James Talarico holding a slight lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. This poll indicates a strong Democratic performance in a statewide Texas race, suggesting that a previously safe Republican seat might become highly competitive in the 2026 election cycle. Historically, Democrats have found it challenging to secure Senate victories in Texas.
The survey shows Talarico leading Paxton by a narrow margin, with notable support from moderates, Black voters, younger Texans, and other key demographic groups. Talarico’s lead increases to 6 points among voters who are highly motivated and highly interested, according to the poll. These results align with other recent surveys indicating Talarico’s lead.
Nick Maddux, Paxton’s campaign spokesman, responded to the poll by stating, “The only poll that matters is November 3rd. Texans will evaluate Talarico’s record, including his stance on reparations, voting against protection measures for children, criticizing oil and gas jobs, and supporting a large tax increase in Texas history.” He expressed confidence that Talarico’s campaign would falter.
JT Ennis, Talarico’s campaign spokesperson, voiced that “Texans are dissatisfied with a broken political system and want a leader who fights for working people instead of billionaire donors.” He stated that Texans would choose Talarico as a morally sound leader.
Talarico has criticized Paxton’s office for withholding communications related to a deal involving attorney Adam Hoffman, charged with sexual abuse in Waco, Texas. Hoffman pleaded guilty to lesser charges, receiving a jail term and losing his law license, but did not register as a sex offender.
Paxton’s campaign has accused Talarico of “intentionally re-traumatizing the child victim for personal gain.”
According to the Fox News survey, Talarico leads Paxton 51 to 48 percent, within the margin of error. Among highly motivated and interested voters, Talarico leads 53 to 47 percent. Concerns regarding Paxton’s character outweigh worries that Talarico is too extreme. Democrats show more motivation and interest in voting compared to Republicans, by 7 and 6 points respectively.
Talarico garners 68 percent support among independents and 98 percent among Democrats, while Paxton holds 89 percent of Republican backing. Non-MAGA Republicans show 24 percent support for Talarico, and Hispanics favor him 59 to Paxton’s 41 percent.
The poll, surveying 1,006 Texas registered voters from July 23 to July 27, shows Democrats with a potential advantage based on voter enthusiasm, crucial for midterm elections. Republicans are concerned since engaged voters tend to appear on Election Day.
The Republican Senate majority stands at 53-45, excluding Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, caucusing with Democrats. Democrats view the Texas seat as critical for reclaiming Senate control; Republicans aim to preserve their majority. Paxton, with President Donald Trump’s backing, faces challenges unifying the Republican base post-primary.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, collaborating on Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson, noted, “Paxton must work on engaging non-MAGA Republicans and independents by linking Talarico to the Democratic Party’s left wing.” If Talarico maintains his lead, the race could become a significant Senate battle, affecting Senate power dynamics.
While campaigning continues, the latest poll suggests Texas might be more contestable than believed.
A New York Times/Siena poll showed a tie between Talarico and Paxton at 47 percent, surveying 656 likely voters in Texas from June 19 to June 27, with a margin of error of 4.5 percent.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll revealed Talarico leads Paxton 45 to 40 percent, surveying 1,048 likely Texas voters from July 15 to July 17, carrying a margin of error of 3.4 percent.
Leave a Reply