Recent polling indicates Democrats are leading in several Senate and gubernatorial races in states President Donald Trump carried in 2020 and 2024. These include contests in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas. These races provide a crucial test of the political climate during Trump’s second term, marked by a slip in his approval rating amid economic concerns and the ongoing Iran war. Democrats aim to leverage recent wins and historical midterm trends, where the party not in the White House often performs better.
On Thursday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted three gubernatorial races towards Democrats, including Iowa and Alaska. Other forecasters like Cook Political Report rate these races as tossups, with Democratic candidates posting competitive polling numbers ahead of November’s election. With two months until Election Day on November 3, these races may influence the balance of power both in Washington and state capitals.
Presidential Elections Overview
Trump won 25 states in 2020 and increased to 31 in 2024. He lost to Joe Biden in the 2020 election, with Biden securing 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232. In 2024, Trump defeated Kamala Harris, winning 312 electoral votes. He flipped six states Biden won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The Republican Party regained Senate control in 2024, flipping Democratic-held seats, while maintaining control of the House. Republicans also held a majority of governorships nationwide.
According to Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, Trump’s influence dwindled, moving from uplifting Republicans in 2024 to detracting from them in 2026. The midterms are anticipated as a significant evaluation of Trump’s influence and the impact of his endorsements.
Iowa Governor’s Race
Iowa has historically been a battleground, with Obama winning it in 2008 and 2012. Trump has performed well in Iowa, winning by significant margins from 2016 to 2024. Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is not seeking reelection, leading to an open race.
The race is between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn. Sand’s name recognition gives him a competitive edge, according to political analysts. Emerson College Polling found Sand leading Lahn 49 to 46 percent, with independents breaking for Sand. Polling shows voters splitting ballots between parties, supporting both Republican and Democrat candidates.
Ohio Races
Ohio is critical for potential Democratic gains, despite its improvement for Trump in 2024. Democrats historically found success here, with Obama carrying the state twice.
Ohio Governor’s Race
After Republican Governor Mike DeWine, Democrat Amy Acton faces Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Polls point to a close contest, with Wedgewood Poll showing Acton slightly ahead. The Cook Political Report now rates it as a toss-up due to campaign dynamics and candidate flaws.
Ohio Senate Race
Democrat Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Senator Jon Husted. Polls like Fox News show Brown ahead. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball see this as a toss-up.
North Carolina Senate Race
North Carolina’s Senate race is highly watched. Roy Cooper, former governor, is up against Republican Michael Whatley. Polls show Cooper leading, with independents favoring him significantly. This race has strong potential for Democrats according to Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Texas Senate Race
Texas remains a Republican stronghold, but Democrats sense opportunity due to the Trump administration’s unpopularity. Paxton faces Democrat Talarico, with polling showing varying leads and ties. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a toss-up.
Alaska Races
Trump won Alaska in 2024 by a significant margin, yet Democrats remain competitive statewide due to ranked choice voting.
Alaska Senate Race
Democrat Mary Peltola’s path to the Senate has cleared with recent candidate withdrawals. Polls show leads fluctuating around the margin of error, with Peltola leading in ranked choice scenarios. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the Senate race as a toss-up.
Alaska Governor’s Race
The governor’s race offers an opportunity for Democrats, despite historical Republican dominance. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces Republican Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson. Ranked choice voting complicates predictions but shows competitive dynamics.
The November 3 elections will be pivotal in assessing political climate under Trump’s second term and evaluating party coalition expansion ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
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