A potentially significant El Niño event is anticipated to intensify in the coming months, prompting questions about how this climate phenomenon will influence the weather in the United States this winter. Federal meteorologists announced on Thursday that El Niño is expected to strengthen through the end of 2026, with over a 90% chance it will become a very strong occurrence during the fall and winter seasons.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring Pacific climate pattern with global weather impacts. Its counterpart, La Niña, is the cycle’s cool phase. Historically, El Niño can lead to stormier weather in the Southern U.S., drier conditions in some northern regions, and altered hurricane activity.
In the latest El Niño update, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced a 75% chance that El Niño will reach historic strength from October to December 2026, surpassing recorded events since 1950. This likelihood has grown from 69% in the agency’s August update. Despite the expected magnitude of El Niño, NOAA warned that typical weather impacts are not assured.
The term “Super El Niño” is popularly used to describe an exceptionally strong event, although it is not an official classification by NOAA.
Anticipated Weather Changes This Winter
AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok shared with Newsweek that December might bring increased chances of heavy rainfall across central and Northern California and possibly the Northeast, along with snow in the Sierras. He noted that an evolving storm pattern could bring heavier rain to the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, along with severe thunderstorms in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. He emphasized that the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Northeast may experience milder conditions compared to the average.
Pastelok predicted similar conditions for January and February, with a strong storm trajectory impacting the West Coast, primarily California and Nevada, extending into the Four Corners region. The Northwest might witness less snow, alongside most of the northern U.S., with fewer cold air incursions. Wet and stormy conditions could prevail in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.
However, Pastelok cautioned that other elements might modify this anticipated El Niño weather pattern, and AccuWeather continues to study these factors.
Climate Prediction Center’s Winter Forecasts
Maps released last month by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) displayed temperature and precipitation outlooks for the winter months from December 2026 to February 2027.
The temperature forecast suggests above-normal conditions for a large area of the U.S., stretching from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. The most pronounced warm signals were detected along parts of the northern region. The map also suggests above-normal temperatures over much of the Southern U.S., although the forecast was less conclusive for areas in California and the Southwest.
The precipitation forecast indicates wetter-than-normal conditions expected from Southern California across the Southwest, the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and extending through Florida and sections of the East Coast.
If you have queries about this story, you can contact Newsweek editors Ben Kelly and Sam Wilson.
Leave a Reply