The ongoing El Niño, among the most intense recorded, is significantly affecting global food security and driving up costs for agricultural commodities worldwide. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported that in August, world food prices reached their highest levels since 2022. This is largely due to major crop-producing nations grappling with the effects of the extraordinary El Niño climate event that began earlier this year.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and an Economics professor at the University of Chicago, has raised concerns. He states that heat-related deaths could exceed 450,000 as the consequences of El Niño now threaten supplies and those dependent on them worldwide.
Regions and Commodities at Risk
According to Matin Qaim, a professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Bonn, Germany, El Niño-related weather extremes are expected to severely impact agricultural production in South and Southeast Asia and Western Africa. “I am particularly concerned about the poorest populations, who already spend a significant portion of their income on food and will struggle more with increasing prices,” Qaim noted.
Experts have identified several food categories likely to experience shortages in the coming months, mainly affecting regions in the Global South. Commodities such as chocolate, olive oil, and coffee are anticipated to be in short supply and cost more for U.S. consumers. Kamiar Mohaddes, a professor of economics and policy at Cambridge University, explained that chocolate and sugar are particularly vulnerable due to thin global buffers this year. Wheat is nearing a 56-year production low, while drought risks threaten rice imports from India, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Duration and Impact of Shortages
Amanda Maycock, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Leeds, reported that El Niño led to 10 to 15 percent less rainfall during the Indian monsoon this summer, impacting rice production. She also mentioned that tropically grown crops like coffee and cocoa are likely to suffer from both heavy rains destroying crops and poor yields caused by droughts.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. will escape the worst outcomes of El Niño, particularly food shortages. Agricultural economist Nelson Villoria from Kansas State University commented that declines in corn and similar yields would “largely be compensated by production in other states,” and despite potential import slowdowns, “the U.S. is unlikely to face shortages of major food groups.”
Qaim highlighted that many poor nations in Africa and Asia rely on grain imports for their food security, leading to potential increases in hunger in these regions. Complications from blocked shipping routes in the Middle East will further impact supply shortages, with prices possibly continuing to rise for six to twelve months.
Mohaddes projected a global “mid-teens percentage” food price increase, with effects persisting for up to two years, as the event builds toward a peak around December 2026. According to Goldman Sachs analysis, this could result in nearly a 16 percent rise in global food commodity prices, fully realizing by the second half of 2028.
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