James Talarico is currently performing well in his Senate race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. His polling numbers are better than those of Beto O’Rourke at a similar stage in the 2018 campaign against Senator Ted Cruz. For many years, Democrats have aimed to secure a Senate seat in Texas but faced disappointment each time. This year, however, the race is rated as a toss-up. A win for Talarico would mark the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas in nearly 40 years. Cruz has warned that a Democratic win in Texas could lead to long-term national dominance for the party.
James Talarico’s Chances of Beating Ken Paxton
A recent poll by SoCal Strategies shows Talarico leading with 50% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 45%. This result marks a shift from June, when Paxton was ahead in the same survey. Talarico has significantly increased his lead among Hispanic voters, now showing a 38-point gap over Paxton. Additionally, support from independent voters has grown, with Talarico now enjoying a 45-point lead. Notably, 12% of Republican respondents plan to vote for Talarico.
“Much like the last poll, Republicans are less decided than Democrats. While 6% of respondents who said they backed Trump in 2024 are currently undecided in the Senate race, the same can only be said of 1% of those who say they voted for [Vice President Kamala] Harris,” the survey report indicated.
To succeed, Paxton will need to secure nearly all of the undecided voters and reclaim a substantial portion of the 12% of Republicans who lean towards Talarico at present.
Talarico’s prospects have also improved on prediction markets. Polymarket now assigns him a 53% chance of winning, a notable turnaround from late July when Paxton was favored with 56% odds. Kalshi reflects a similar trend, granting Talarico 52% odds, up from a few days prior when Paxton was expected to win by a comparable margin.
Beto O’Rourke’s Chances Against Ted Cruz in 2018
In the 2018 campaign, Ted Cruz maintained roughly a 3-point lead over Beto O’Rourke according to Real Clear Politics’ average polls. Cruz eventually defeated O’Rourke by a 2-point margin. At the time, Cruz acknowledged O’Rourke’s competitive campaign. Currently, Cruz has expressed concerns about a potential Democratic victory. During a recent podcast, he stated that Republicans “could lose Texas.” In July, he remarked that Talarico poses a “real chance.”
“I think this is a real race. I think it’s going to be close. I think we’re going to win, I think we’re going to keep Texas red, but the polling right now shows this is a 1- or 2-point race,” Cruz shared with Texas Governor Greg Abbott during a radio show guest appearance.
Cruz also relayed his worries to Sean Spicer, former press secretary to President Donald Trump, stating that the Senate race in Texas is very competitive. He warned that the election could be especially challenging for Republicans.
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