Former Vice President Kamala Harris has surpassed California Governor Gavin Newsom by 15 points in a recent poll of potential Democratic presidential candidates for 2028. Though she hasn’t yet declared her intentions for the White House, Harris was favored by 30% of respondents in a Financial Times/Focaldata survey conducted from October 2 to October 5 among 2,553 U.S. adults.
Newsom garnered 15% support, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were both at 9%. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff followed with 8%.
This polling data arrives less than three weeks before the November midterm elections, amid speculation about Democratic leadership following GOP President Donald Trump’s second term. Although the figures mirror previous polling—such as the Harvard CAPS/Harris survey which set Harris at 38% compared to Newsom’s 17%—they solidify her early front-runner status.
Kamala Harris’s Potential 2028 Run
Since her 2024 presidential election loss to Trump, Harris has remained non-committal about running in 2028. Her ties to Democratic donors and candidate support efforts have come under scrutiny.
The Washington Post reported on October 6 that Harris faces mixed pressures within the party. Some Democrats value her experience, while others call for new leadership following the 2024 setback. Voter preferences over two years before an election may not translate into actual votes in the primaries.
Gavin Newsom’s Stance
In September, Newsom stated on CNN’s Jake Tapper that he wouldn’t run for president if Harris did, citing overlapping political support and questioning the wisdom of competing against her. Despite past considerations of a 2024 run, Newsom remains open to a future campaign if Harris does not enter the race.
Newsom has been active on the national scene, campaigning for Democratic candidates and positioning himself as a prominent Trump critic.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Plans
Ocasio-Cortez has not ruled out a 2028 presidential bid. On ABC’s This Week in August, she emphasized focusing on the midterms while leaving open future possibilities. Her 9% poll result ties her with Buttigieg, with others like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also mentioned as potential candidates, though none have announced their candidacy.
Republican Field: JD Vance Leads
Vice President JD Vance leads Republican presidential candidates with 38% favor in the same Focaldata survey. He is followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 24%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9%, and Donald Trump Jr. at 7%. These results align with earlier Harvard CAPS/Harris findings, confirming Vance’s consistent support.
Midterm Polling Insight
Democrats currently hold an eight-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot heading into November’s midterms. This reflects the broader political climate as potential 2028 candidates build their national presence.
For Harris, the crucial decision is whether she can convert early polling momentum into a 2028 campaign, while Newsom’s path may hinge on her choice.
Leave a Reply