The New York Knicks made a stunning comeback in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals, overcoming a 14-point deficit to defeat the San Antonio Spurs 105-95 on Monday. Despite this victory, the Spurs remain favored to level the series. As of Friday at 12:45 p.m. ET, FanDuel shows the Spurs with a -225 moneyline and as -6.5 favorites on a 215.5 total.
Betting Analysis
If you are inclined to choose a side, consider New York +6, even down to +5. Before the Finals started, predictions for New York to win the title at +170 and by at least 1.5 games at +270 were made, which impacts the decision not to place a bet on San Antonio as a favorite in this series.
Karl-Anthony Towns’ Influence
Karl-Anthony Towns credited his late mother for the calmness he displayed during the thrilling Game 1. This mindset could be crucial as the Knicks head into Game 2.
Game 2 Betting Trend
A historical trend can make you hesitant about backing the Knicks with the points. Home favorites generally perform well in Game 2 after a series-opening loss. Despite this, I’m focused on the total and am betting UNDER 215.5 for the Knicks-Spurs Game 2, adjusting to +212 if needed.
UNDER 215.5 Analysis
The ‘zigzag theory’ would suggest betting Over in Game 2, countering the Under result from Game 1 where the Knicks won 105-95. This theory guides bettors to pick the opposite outcome of the prior game. However, Game 1’s pace combined with championship-level defenses suggests a deeper reason for the low score. Both teams scored over 50 points in only one of the four quarters.
The Spurs challenged Jalen Brunson with tough shots, while the Knicks’ bigs, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson, effectively defended Victor Wembanyama. Both teams feature strong defensive wings who impacted the shooting performance of Brunson and Wembanyama.
For Game 2, Knicks wings Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart, collectively known as ‘Wingstop’, are expected to thwart Spurs’ efforts by containing Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox. Castle and Julian Champagnie attempt to guard Brunson, adding to the defensive intensity.
Game Strategy Insights
As the series progresses, games are likely to become more defensive, favoring strategic plays over scoring frenzies. The Spurs benefit from slowing the tempo against the Knicks’ superior half-court offense. Neither team gives up many ‘easy buckets’ due to their low offensive turnover rates and excellent defensive rebounding.
Waiting to lock in a bet on the Under close to tip-off may be wise; potential increases in the total could occur as public bettors often favor Overs. The public’s influence can sway the numbers, particularly because it’s the Finals and involves the Knicks.
Game 2 Prediction
Prediction for Game 2: Knicks 107, Spurs 104.
Player Prop: For Spurs wing Stephon Castle, consider UNDER 16.5 points as an option.
For more insights, follow Geoff Clark on X @Geoffery-Clark and listen to the OutKick Bets Podcast.
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